August 11 Tropics: TD 5 Dissipates

In this brief update, I will discuss the latest on the tropics, as well as Tropical Depression 5. A full update will be posted by 8 PM tonight.


Tropical Depression 5: Last night, just as I was finishing my update, tropical depression 5 formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and I was not able to post much about it as new information was still coming in. Shortly after I posted my update last night, however, the convection quickly died down in the tropical depression, due to an unfavorable environment caused by a ULL, which is when it became apparent that TD5 may never get past tropical depression status. This ended up being the case, as Tropical Depression 5 dissipated just south of the Gulf coast, being the 2nd storm so far this season to dissipate in the Gulf of Mexico just before making landfall.

The remnants of TD5 are likely to bring heavy rainfall for the South, with its moisture combining with a cold front to produce a heavy rainfall event for the area. More details will be posted with the 8 PM update.

Invest 93: There is an invest in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, which is currently weakening due to an unfavorable environment. I did not mention this invest in previous updates as it did not appear to have a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm, and now due to an increasingly unfavorable environment, this invest only has a low risk (less than 10%) of becoming a tropical depression or storm.

Leeward Islands: There is a weak tropical wave east of the Leeward Islands, moving westward. This tropical wave could develop in the longer range, however it is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the short range.

Overall Summary: When I updated my hurricane season outlook a few days ago, I did expect more tropical waves to develop, however the question is how many of them manage to develop, being why I expected a range of 14-18 named storms. As we are now seeing, conditions are not very favorable for tropical development across the Atlantic, with a tropical depression having dissipated and two disturbances currently unable to develop into tropical cyclones. Later this season, the Atlantic Ocean is likely to become more favorable for more tropical cyclones to form, though I do not think at this time that there will be very high activity, keeping the total number of named storms below 18.

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