August 11: Stormy Pattern Next Week

Today ended up being another hot and humid day, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, and in the lower to mid 90s for the immediate NYC area. Today will be the last of these hot days for a while though, as temperatures cool down into the 80s and even upper 70s for the next few days, with temperatures staying in the 80s next week as a stormy pattern sets up along a stalled cold front.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be colder than today. With a cool air mass around, cloudy skies, and an onshore ESE wind, high temperatures will only rise into the lower 80s inland, lower to mid 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Long Island and S CT. Areas that see rain during the afternoon could be slightly cooler than the forecast temperatures.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also expected tomorrow. Most of the storms will stay to our west and south, in Pennsylvania and the central/southern Mid Atlantic, where heavy rain is likely, though some storms are also possible around the area, mainly towards western New Jersey and Orange County, NY. Eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut are the most likely places to stay dry.

Friday – Sunday: Comfortable Temperatures Expected

Friday will continue with the isolated showers and thunderstorms, with the heaviest rain again to our south, with chilly temperatures again expected, similar to those of tomorrow, if not slightly cooler. By Saturday, more sunshine is expected, with temperatures likely to warm up into the lower to mid 80s across the area.

By Sunday, high temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the mid 80s for the immediate NYC area, but a cold front approaching will put an end to the dry conditions starting on Monday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible for the western parts of the area.

Next Week: Stormy Pattern Develops

By Monday afternoon, a slow moving cold front should approach the area and may stall, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Depression 5 will also be in place, combined with precipitable water values over 2 inches, will lead to a heavy rain threat for Monday through Tuesday night. The most extreme model runs were this morning’s GFS runs, which showed a widespread area of 3-4 inches of rain. The GGEM is much drier, with the DGEX in between. At this time, a widespread 1/2 to 2 inches of rain are likely, with rainfall amounts locally as high as 3-4 inches. This is still in the longer range and can still change, and more details will come as the scenario for this time period becomes clearer.

Late next week, however, the GFS and DGEX models introduce an interesting possibility. They show a tropical system forming in the Gulf of Mexico, moving inland and bringing heavy rainfall for the East Coast, possibly including the NYC area. This is in the long range, and the models may not be as good in handling tropical cyclones in their longer range, but it is something to keep an eye on. Stay tuned for more details on this time period.

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