Aug 16 Morning: Today’s Storms, Late Week, Tropics

Posting For Today And Tomorrow: This morning update includes my latest forecast for today’s strong to severe thunderstorms, an update on Thursday’s potential heavy rain event, and a brief update on the tropics, with the remnants of Tropical Depression 5 likely to regenerate today or tomorrow. Storm updates will be posted between 4-6 PM today if needed, otherwise the next update will be posted tomorrow afternoon.

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Today’s Severe Weather Potential: 15% Risk

The cold front is currently approaching the area from the west, with thunderstorms starting to form in Pennsylvania. These storms will continue to develop and intensify while moving east. The parameters are favorable, with CAPE between 1500 and 2500, bulk shear up to 40 knots, and lapse rates up to 6.5. The cloud cover is not very supportive, which may limit the severe weather risk and prevent the 30% wind risk from verifying, though with the parameters in place, a severe weather outbreak is likely for the western and central parts of the area as a squall line moves through later this evening.

Storms today will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Hail is also possible in the northern parts of the area, along with an isolated tornado also possible. If needed, storm updates will be posted between 4 and 6 PM. There may also be an updated version of the map, if necessary.

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Thursday’s Storm: Too Far South?

Yesterday’s update mentioned a possible storm that the models are now showing on Thursday, with heavy rainfall amounts likely for places that are affected by this storm. The latest models, however, trended much further south with the heavy rain zone, and while they may trend slightly further north, a significant north trend is unlikely.

With the cold front stalled to our east, a low pressure will move up the cold front, however it is uncertain how far to our south and east the cold front will be when the low pressure moves over it. As the cold front isn’t likely to trend much further north, as it should be to our east, the storm won’t trend too much north/west, likely leaving the western parts of the area drier than the rest of the area. Despite this, with a north trend still possible, a heavy rain event is expected for parts of, if not most of the area, with Long Island and S CT the most likely places to see heavy rain, with 2 to 3 inches of rain a good possibility. Stay tuned for more details later this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.


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Brief Tropics Update: Tropical Depression 5’s remnants are currently in the Gulf of Mexico, and are likely to regenerate over the next day or two. The storm will then move over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico and will likely intensify to a strong Tropical Depression.

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