Today was another warm and humid day, with a few isolated storms currently active west of NYC. These storms, as with yesterday, are isolated, but are producing heavy rainfall, with radar estimates showing a few rainfall amounts up to 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in western New Jersey. Tomorrow should bring much more widespread rain, however, with the entire area likely to see rain, which could be heavy.
Tomorrow should bring heavy rainfall to most of the area. As the cold front slowly moves through the area, entering a humid air mass full of moisture, including high precipitable water, slow moving storms will form tomorrow, similar to those currently affecting western and central NY/PA, producing heavy rainfall in parts of the area, with amounts locally reaching 2 to 3 inches. Not everyone will see these rain amounts, as these heavy storms will affect parts of, but not the whole area, with most places likely to end up between 0.5 and 1.5 inch of rain.
As these storms will be slow moving while being able to produce heavy rainfall, they will be able to produce flash flooding, which is the main threat with tomorrow’s storms. Due to the lack of supportive severe weather parameters, severe weather is not expected. High temperatures, meanwhile, will be much colder than today, due to the cloud cover and rain, in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area.
Sunday And Next Week: Warming Up, Some Storms
As soon as the storm exits on Sunday, temperatures will start warming up. A few showers are still possible early, though high temperatures will rise into the upper 80s, with more sunshine and less humidity. Monday will continue warming up, reaching the lower 90s.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, the next storm should approach the area, bringing the risk of thunderstorms. The parameters are not very supportive of severe weather at this time, and while there is time for things to change, widespread severe weather is not very likely around this time frame. This should bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area, which should help bring the monthly rainfall closer to average.
Afterwards, there are signs that temperatures may warm up into the lower to mid 90s once again as warmer 850 mb temperatures return. This is still uncertain as it’s in the longer range, however temperatures are likely to warm up beyond the middle of next week, with drier conditions returning. Stay tuned for more updates on the longer range.