July 8: Heavy Rain On Saturday

With an onshore flow, the area finally cooled down today, with the first sub-90 degree day in nearly a week. In addition, mainly cloudy skies were observed today, along with increased humidity, and rain made a return for a few parts of the area, as a few isolated yet heavy storms affected places west of New York City.

While the heat did not affect the area, it was still in full force well to our west, in places that were not affected by the back door cold front. High temperatures again reached the 100s for parts of the Mid Atlantic. For these places, the heat should end on Saturday with the cold front, which should bring the first chance of a widespread heavy rain event to the area since early June.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow should be another day similar to today. With a SE wind persisting, the hottest conditions will stay to our south and west, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s. Humid conditions are expected again, with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The humid air mass will remain over the area, leading to another day of mostly cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms across the area. While most places are likely to stay dry tomorrow, any storm that forms has the potential of producing heavy rain. Further to our west should be the rain from the same cold front that will bring the heavy rain to our area on Saturday.

Saturday’s Heavy Rain Forecast

The heavy rain threat for Saturday mentioned in yesterday’s update has now increased on the models, with the potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rain event. With the humid air mass in place, a cold front will slowly move through, and with a lot of moisture available, these storms will be able to produce very heavy rainfall, with flash flooding possible.

The rain is expected to fall throughout the day on Saturday, mainly during the second half of the day, with at least 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. Some places will see more, others will see less, though from what the latest models are showing, the best chance for more rain would be north and west of NYC. Stay tuned for more details on this potential.

Next Week: Warmth, Followed By More Rain

As the storm exits for Sunday, partly sunny skies return with less humidity, but the temperatures should start warming up again, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. Monday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures back into the lower, possibly mid 90s away from the coast.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, however, the next storm should approach the area, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures should stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The cold front exits by Thursday, however as we have seen with the past cold fronts, temperatures should not cool down, in fact temperatures should remain steady, if not warm up again, potentially reaching the lower 90s again for the end of next week.

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