July 7: Heat Relaxes For Now, Rain Returns

Record temperatures continued today, as temperatures reached the 100s in at least parts of the area for a 4th consecutive day. Humidity also increased, leading to the heat index reaching the mid to even upper 100s. Fortunately, the temperatures will slightly cool down, however the humidity will only continue to increase, with rain even returning.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will finally bring cooler temperatures to the area, however while it is definitely an improvement from the past few days, it is not going to feel much colder due to the higher humidity. With an onshore SE wind expected, high temperatures are not going to get as warm over the area, with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s for eastern Long Island and SE CT, mid to upper 80s for western Long Island and SW CT, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s for NYC and northern New Jersey. However, the dew points will reach the mid to upper 60s, leading to the heat index reaching the lower to mid 90s.

As mentioned above, the SE wind will also bring a rather humid air mass into the area. Cloud cover should increase, with partly cloudy skies expected for tomorrow, and a few isolated thunderstorms are also possible for places west of New York City. No severe weather is expected, however.

Warmth On Friday, Rain Returns For Saturday

Friday will continue with the warmth and humidity, and with temperatures slightly warming up combined with even higher humidity, Friday will not be very comfortable. With high temperatures reaching the lower 90s away from the coast, and dew points in the upper 60s, the heat index could reach the mid 90s. An isolated shower or storm is possible again, but the chances of that are low, as with tomorrow.

Saturday, however, brings the best chance for a widespread rain event since late June, which should be very helpful considering that the area has been very dry lately, and there is even the potential for heavy rainfall. A cold front is expected to move through, however the factors for severe weather are almost absent, with very little CAPE, LI and shear, therefore severe weather is not expected. However, the Precipitable Water values are very high, over 2 inches for parts of the area.

For Saturday’s forecast, rain and thunderstorms are likely throughout the day, with humid conditions also expected, due to dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Not everyone in the area may see rain, also why I stayed with an 80% chance for storms, but most of the area is expected to see rain, with rainfall amounts generally between 1/4 and 1/2 inch, and there is a potential for heavy rainfall with the stronger storms, reaching up to 1 to 1.5 inch.

Next Week: 90+ Degrees Return, But So Does The Rain

Sunday should be drier for the area, with high temperatures returning into the upper 80s to lower 90s again, but with lower humidity. As warmer 850 mb temperatures return into the area, temperatures should warm up into the lower to mid 90s again for Monday and Tuesday next week.

By Wednesday, however, the next cold front should approach the area, once again bringing the chance of rain and thunderstorms. While the severe weather potential, if any, is uncertain, temperatures should cool down after this cold front. How much they cool down, however, is still uncertain, and considering that the trend this summer has been to weaken colder air masses on the models as they approach the shorter range, I would expect temperatures to remain steady, if not slightly cool down, into the upper 80s, possibly mid 80s.

Brief Tropics Update:

Invest 96L, mentioned in Sunday’s update, has remained disorganized until today, however as it approaches southern Texas and northeastern Mexico, it has intensified to tropical storm force intensity, and if it does become more organized, it may be classified as a tropical depression or storm later tonight or early tomorrow. It is expected to make landfall in that area either tomorrow or Friday.

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