– My August Outlook has been posted in the Long Range Forecasts page, expecting above average temperatures and slightly above average precipitation.
– The latest on the tropics, as well as any severe weather in the next 2 days is included in the Severe Weather/Tropics page, which was updated tonight.
– The 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the area, with the potential rainfall amounts for Sunday and Monday for each part of the area.
Today was a very chilly day compared to the rest of this month, with high temperatures only in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area, which despite being only slightly below average, is actually one of the coolest days of the month. These comfortable conditions should continue through tomorrow, however things get more unsettled afterwards, with a storm that should bring rain and chilly temperatures to the area.
Tomorrow should be a little more chilly than today, but with more sunshine expected. High temperatures should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and for S CT and Long Island, with lower to occasionally mid 80s for the immediate NYC area. A NNE turning ESE wind is expected throughout the day.
No rain is expected for the area, however rain will slowly approach the southern and western parts of the Mid Atlantic. These storms will later affect the area on Sunday and Monday, bringing locally heavy rain.
Sunday And Monday: Rainy, Chilly
As mentioned above, a storm will slowly approach the area on Saturday night, and affect the area between Sunday and Monday. Rain and some thunderstorms are likely to overspread the area during Sunday morning to late afternoon, with chilly high temperatures, in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area but slightly warmer for the immediate NYC area.
The models continue to be uncertain with the rainfall amounts, with some keeping it to our south, others bringing up to 1/4 inch, and others producing 1-2 inches. There should be a high pressure close to New England, which will prevent the rain from reaching that area, however if the high pressure is close enough, it may also prevent the area from seeing anything more than some light rain.
At this time, I am expecting occasional light to moderate rain and thunderstorms between Sunday and Monday, producing locally heavy rainfall, with the potential for the heaviest rainfall on Sunday night. Most of the rain should be focused on the western parts of the area, with some rain but not as heavy further east. Rainfall amounts should generally range from 1/4 to 3/4 inch, with the highest amounts in western NJ and Orange County, with up to 1.5 inch possible in the heavier showers.
Next Week And Longer Range: Heat, Humidity Return
After the storms move out, Tuesday should bring the return of heat and humidity, with high temperatures returning into the mid to upper 80s inland, and the upper 80s to potentially lower 90s for the immediate NYC area. With partly cloudy skies, there is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, however that is unlikely at this time.
A cold front should affect the area on Wednesday. A warmer air mass should spread into the area for the day, bringing high temperatures into the lower 90s for the immediate NYC area, however the worst of the heat will stay to our south, where a significant heat wave over the southern US with 100+ degrees should spread into the southern and potentially central Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, the front is expected to move through on Wednesday night. There is still uncertainty with the exact timing, with solutions ranging from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning, however at this time, scattered thunderstorms are likely, some of which could reach strong to severe levels if the slower solution verifies. More details on this potential will come once details become clearer.
The cold front is likely to slow down once it moves offshore, and if some model solutions verify, it may even stall to our east. The air mass behind the cold front will not be much cooler, with mid to upper 80s likely to persist for the end of next week.