July 30 Blog Stuff

Today was a very chilly day compared to the rest of this month, with high temperatures only in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area, which despite being only slightly below average, is actually one of the coolest days of the month. These comfortable conditions should continue through tomorrow, however things get more unsettled afterwards, with a storm that should bring rain and chilly temperatures to the area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow should be a little more chilly than today, but with more sunshine expected. High temperatures should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and for S CT and Long Island, with lower to occasionally mid 80s for the immediate NYC area. An ENE turning ESE wind is possible throughout the day.

No rain is expected for the area, however rain will slowly approach the southern and western parts of the Mid Atlantic.

Sunday And Monday: Rainy, Chilly

As mentioned above, a storm will slowly approach the area on Saturday night, and affect the area between Sunday and Monday. Rain and some thunderstorms are likely to overspread the area during Sunday morning to late afternoon, with chilly high temperatures, in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area but slightly warmer for the immediate NYC area.

The models continue to be uncertain with the rainfall amounts, with some keeping it to our south, others bringing up to 1/4 inch, and others producing 1-2 inches. There should be a high pressure close to New England, which will prevent the rain from reaching that area, however if the high pressure is close enough, it may also prevent the area from seeing anything more than some light rain.

At this time, I am expecting occasional light to moderate rain and thunderstorms between Sunday and Monday, producing locally heavy rainfall, with the potential for the heaviest rainfall on Sunday night. Rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch are generally expected, with amounts locally reaching near or slightly over 1 inch in the heavier showers.

Long Range Outlooks: August

2010 has been a year of extremes so far, going from record snows to record flooding, and to record heat that has been persistent since March. July featured record temperatures as well, mainly due to a heat wave in early July that brought temperatures into the 100s for up to four consecutive days, as well as an unusually high number of days above 90 degrees. August is likely to continue with the hot pattern, however it is possible that August will not be as hot as July was.

August is going to start on a wet note, with August 1-2 bringing locally heavy rain as well as chilly temperatures. By August 3rd, however, temperatures warm up again to where they’ve been most of this summer, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. After a cold front on the 4th, like most other cold fronts of this summer, a significant cool down is unlikely, with the hot pattern persisting. If some model solutions verify, we could see another big heat wave starting on the 6th/7th, however this is still uncertain as it’s in the longer range. Despite this uncertainty, above average temperatures are likely to continue.

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