10:16 AM: An area of light to moderate rain and storms moved through earlier this morning, bringing at least a trace of rain to most of the area, with up to 1/2 inch in western New Jersey. The cold front has not moved through yet, and the potential of additional storms continues until the early afternoon hours.
The line of storms can already be seen in central PA, and is rather weak and scattered. This may bring an additional chance of storms later today, however the highest chance of severe storms remains to our south, where I added a 15% risk for parts of the eastern Mid Atlantic today, as well as a 10%, potential 15% risk for parts of West Virginia and Virginia. The CAPE and shear parameters are not too bad, however there are factors that will limit the severe weather threat in that area, including cloud cover and unsupportive timing. For the NYC area, no severe weather is expected, though locally heavy rain is possible with the storms.
If needed, storm updates will be posted between 2 and 4 PM. Otherwise, the next update will be posted tonight, with more details about Sunday and Monday’s potential rain event and what happens afterwards.