Notes: The 5-Day Forecast and Severe Weather/Tropics pages have been updated, including details about Invest 90L.
A cold front moved through the area earlier today, bringing a temporary end from the heat and humidity as the wind changed direction towards the NW with dropping humidity. Most of the area saw light rain this morning, with a few locally heavy thunderstorms for southern New York City earlier this afternoon. The worst of the severe weather, however, was focused over southeastern Virginia, where widespread strong to severe thunderstorms produced tornado warnings and dumped several inches of rain.
Temperatures are going to be much cooler starting tomorrow, with near to slightly below average high temperatures likely, but these cool and dry conditions will not last for long, as more rain chances return by Sunday, as well as the return of warmer temperatures for next week.
Tomorrow will be partly sunny across the area. High temperatures will be much cooler than today, in the lower to occasionally mid 80s inland, and the mid to occasionally upper 80s for the immediate NYC area. Long Island and S CT, with a NNW wind, should reach the lower 80s.
Tomorrow night should also be chilly, with low temperatures expected to drop into the mid to upper 50s inland, lower to mid 60s for the immediate NYC area, and the upper 50s to lower 60s for Long Island and S CT. The cooler spots in east central Long Island should be slightly cooler.
Saturday – Monday: Chilly, Some Rain
Saturday will be the last of the comfortable and chilly days for a while, with slightly cooler temperatures than tomorrow. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s across the area, with the wind direction turning towards the east. Saturday night should not be as chilly as tomorrow night with increasing cloud cover.
Rain is likely to return for the area on Sunday and Monday. The models still have different solutions, some showing a suppressed coastal low with no rain for the area and heavy rain to our south, and others showing scattered yet heavy showers and thunderstorms. At this time, I am expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly on Sunday night, some of which could produce heavy rainfall. High temperatures in this solution would be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area for both days.
This is not a final solution yet, and can still change. Stay tuned for more details over the next few days.
Next Week: Hot, Humid Conditions Return
Behind this area of storms, temperatures should warm up again with more humidity, with high temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s inland, and the upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area. Dry conditions are expected for Tuesday, however by Wednesday, a cold front should move through, bringing the next risk of thunderstorms and potentially severe weather to the area. There is still uncertainty with the timing, with some models bringing the cold front through in the morning and others in the afternoon, however thunderstorms are likely for Wednesday at this time, with even hotter and more humid conditions possible in the slower scenario. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.