July 27, 2010: Rain Chances On Thursday, Sunday

Today was a much nicer day across the area, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the area. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer, however more rain returns for Thursday, as well as Sunday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow should be warmer than today, as a cold front approaches from our west, with increasing humidity. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s inland, and the lower to mid 90s for the immediate NYC area. With a SW wind, S CT and Long Island will reach the mid to upper 80s.

For tomorrow night, mostly cloudy skies are expected as well as increased humidity as low temperatures drop into the upper 60s to 70s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm could be possible, especially after midnight.

Thursday’s Outlook: Stormy Conditions Return

By Thursday, the next cold front should affect the area. The model solutions have not trended slower, and in fact some models have trended faster, with the GFS already showing the heavier rain offshore by noon. It is still faster than the other models, and I continue to lean towards the slower solutions, however a severe weather potential isn’t too high at this time, with unsupportive timing, too much cloud cover, and the lack of widespread high shear. With high precipitable water values, however, heavy rain will be a threat as a line of rain and thunderstorms moves through in the late morning to early afternoon hours. The highest severe weather potential will stay to the south and east of the area.

Longer Range: Chilly, But Rain Returns

For Friday, temperatures will significantly cool down, with high temperatures falling into the lower to mid 80s with a few upper 80s possible, and low temperatures in the 50s inland and 60s elsewhere. Saturday should be the same, however the next rain chance returns by Sunday afternoon. A disturbance is expected to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday, which would keep high temperatures down into the lower 80s, however some models are showing a heavy rain possibility, with 1-2 inches of rain, including the parallel GFS, DGEX and ECMWF. This potential is still uncertain, and more details will come as details become clearer on this storm, and if a heavy rain potential will be present or not.

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