July 26: Storms Return For Thursday

Blog Updates:

– This past week was very active for the area, with several rounds of severe thunderstorms. A summary of these storms has been posted in the Storm Summary page, as well as yesterday’s confirmed tornado in Bronx.

– The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated tonight.

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The very active week came to an end yesterday, with yet another severe thunderstorm that brought widespread wind damage from Bergen county, NJ to Westchester county and Bronx, into Long Island. The NWS confirmed that there was an EF-1 tornado in Bronx yesterday, which was only the 2nd tornado in the Bronx since 1950. Fortunately, with the cold front that moved through, today was a much quieter day for the area, with no rain expected until Thursday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be another very nice day for the area, with low humidity again. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s for the interior (NW NJ and Orange County), in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area (NYC, western Long Island, NE NJ, Rockland/Westchester counties), and for southern Connecticut and Long Island, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s with a WSW wind.

Most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast will stay dry once again, with mainly sunny skies, however Virginia and parts of Maryland will not be dry, with scattered thunderstorms possible.

Wednesday And Thursday: Humidity And Storms Return

By Wednesday, humidity is expected to increase once again with partly sunny skies. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, lower 90s for the immediate NYC area, and for Long Island and S CT, temperatures should reach the mid to upper 80s, however temperatures for parts of Long Island could be slightly cooler, especially with a SSW wind. I would not be surprised if parts of the immediate NYC area reach the mid 90s for Wednesay.

For Wednesday Night, temperatures will cool down into the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, and in the 70s for the rest of the area, however it will become even more humid, with dew points back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The NAM model shows a thunderstorm potential for late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, and with the NAM being more reasonable with the cold front timing, I mentioned this potential in the 5-Day Forecast.

Thursday will be another hot and humid day, but with the next cold front, comes the next risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the models continue to be fast with the timing, showing the cold front moving through on Thursday morning, however they have also been too fast for previous cold fronts. Yesterday’s storms are an example of this, as 4 days earlier, the models showed the cold front moving through on Saturday, with Sunday being dry. I continue to expect the models to trend slower, with Thursday potentially being a favorable day for severe weather for the Mid Atlantic up to NYC, potentially including the southern Northeast if the timing is supportive. More details will come on this storm potential tomorrow, as well as a severe weather potential risk map.

Friday And Longer Range: Colder Temperatures Return

Unlike the previous cold fronts that moved through the area, which kept temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, this cold front is likely to cool down the area, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s with a few upper 80s for Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s inland, and the 60s for the immediate NYC area, southern CT and Long Island.

Sunday is expected to be slightly warmer as a warmer air mass approaches from the west. For Sunday night into Monday, however, as the warmer air mass continues to push into the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms may be possible, as well as increased humidity. Stay tuned for more details on this storm potential.

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