Note: The 5-Day Forecast has been updated tonight.
Tonight’s Storm Potential:
As I mentioned was a good possibility in my previous update, the two areas of storms have split, with one area staying to the north of NYC and the other to the west and just to the south of NYC. As a result, the most likely areas tonight to see storms are interior SE NY and south/central CT, where I have a higher risk of thunderstorms in the 5-Day Outlook. Another area likely to see storms will be for west central New Jersey and areas south of NYC, however it is possible that these storms manage to move through parts of southern NYC. northern NJ and parts of Rockland county, NY should see an area of light rain, but no severe storms.
Tomorrow should, be slightly cooler than today, however it will still be quite humid, especially earlier in the day, and temperatures will still reach the lower to mid 90s for the immediate NYC area, and the upper 80s for interior areas. Mostly cloudy skies are generally expected across the area, but if there will be thunderstorms during the early afternoon, it could end up being slightly colder.
There is also a severe thunderstorm potential tomorrow, as the cold front moves through, ending the heat and humidity for now. While the best parameters are mainly to our south according to the latest models, there are still some strong to severe thunderstorms possible, especially during the afternoon hours, as a line of storms moves through. For now, I expect the area to be in the northern end of the 15% risk for tomorrow. If needed, storm updates may be posted between 2 and 6 PM tomorrow.
Next Week’s Outlook
Monday and Tuesday will already be cooler and less humid. Monday should be the coolest day, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s inland and the upper 80s for the immediate NYC area, with Tuesday slightly warming up, with lower 90s possible for the immediate NYC area. No rain is expected during this time period.
For Wednesday, a warmer air mass once again returns into the area, with temperatures warming up into the lower 90s again, as a cold front approaches from our west. It is likely to move through on Thursday, however its timing is still uncertain. The latest model solutions have it moving on Wednesday night, however they have been too slow for this storm and previous storms, and may very well trend slower. For now, I am going slower than the models, expecting a thunderstorm risk for Thursday and Thursday night, with highs in the lower to potentially mid 90s.
Friday and next weekend are expected to be rather chilly, with temperatures cooling down into the mid to upper 80s, however temperatures should warm up again by the end of the weekend or Monday.