9:06 PM: There are two separate areas of storms currently active, the first being in central NY and the second in north central PA. The area of storms in central New York is currently moving east to ENE, taking it towards east central NY and western New England, the areas highlighted with a 15% risk of severe weather in my outlook for today. These storms are strong to severe, and while most of them should stay to the north of the area, some of these storms are likely to affect the northern parts of the area, including southeastern NY and south/central Connecticut. There is also a band of light to occasionally moderate rain ahead of this line of storms, which is about to enter Orange County, and should continue moving ESE from there.
The second area of storms is in north central Pennsylvania, and moving SE. This area of storms is severe, and is likely to spread into most of central and southern Pennsylvania. It may approach the southwestern parts of the area, towards west central New Jersey.
What happens for NYC, however, is still uncertain and could change at any time. These two areas of storms are moving in two different directions, but they are still connected around NE PA, with scattered severe storms in that area. What is uncertain is whether these two areas of storms stay connected, or if they split. If they split, the immediate NYC area is likely to stay mainly dry with an isolated storm or two. If they stay connected, however, another round of strong storms may be possible for the immediate NYC area. More details will be posted on this either later this hour, or with tonight’s 10 PM update.