A severe thunderstorm has just went through northern New Jersey into New York City, producing a wide path of hail and damaging wind gusts. This, however, is not the end of the severe weather potential, as things only become even more active. Tomorrow, in addition to being one of the hottest days of the year, will also bring a severe weather risk to parts of the area.
Tonight will continue to be mild and humid, with low temperatures only dropping into the mid to upper 70s across the area. There is an area of storms in western NY and PA which may approach our area, and while it is uncertain whether it affects us or not, the NAM and RUC models have been consistently showing storms for tonight, and if these solutions verify, another round of storms may be possible for late tonight.
Tomorrow will be a very hot, humid and uncomfortable day. With partly cloudy skies, high temperatures wil rise into the mid 90s inland, and the upper 90s for the immediate NYC area, with a few places possibly reaching the lower 100s if there is enough sunshine. With dew points in the 70s, it will feel like the mid to upper 100s.
There is, however, the potential that the temperatures would not be as high as expected. As the warm front will stay to our north, there is a thunderstorm risk from southern Michigan and northern Indiana/Ohio, through central NY/PA and into southern New England. The highest risk of severe storms will be focused in southern Michigan and northern Indiana/Ohio, as the parameters are the most supportive in these areas. Further east, there will be a general 15% severe thunderstorm risk, as the parameters are relatively supportive, but not as much as places further west.
The corridor of storms for tomorrow is expected to be in northern PA and southern NY into southern New England, however more cloud cover is expected for the northern parts of the area tomorrow, also where the best chance of a severe thunderstorm is, with at least a 15% slight risk. The risk of strong to severe storms in the area should start from the afternoon hours, and should focus on the northern parts of the area, with the main threat being strong wind gusts. If needed, storm updates will be posted between 3 and 5 PM tomorrow.
Sunday’s Outlook: Hot, Humid And Stormy
Sunday will be the last of the hot and humid days. With Saturday night likely to be mild and humid, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, Sunday will continue with the heat and humidity, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, and the lower to mid 90s for the immediate NYC area. The severe weather risk, however, is much lower than tomorrow, especially with much lower parameters. At this time, a 5% risk of severe weather is expected for Sunday, with scattered storms, a few which could reach strong to locally severe levels.
More on the longer range will come on tomorrow’s update, which will focus on that.