With enough sunshine, the area is currently heating up quickly, with temperatures already in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast, along with a few upper 90s near the immediate NYC area. The temperatures are still warming up, which is leading to increased instability.
Looking at the latest regional radar to the left, there is widespread activity in the Northeast, where the SPC has issued a moderate risk for severe weather today. While some thunderstorms are expected in the area, some which could reach severe levels, especially in the northern parts of the area (SE NY/NW NJ, southern Connecticut), the area should be nowhere as active as places to our north are, mainly due to less supportive parameters.
Below, I will post updates for the storms until 4 PM today. An update will be posted tonight, with more details on this weekend’s storm potential, as well as the return of very hot and humid temperatures.
8:09 PM: Strong to locally severe storms continue to affect the area. The first area of storms is currently in east central Long Island, and moving ESE. This area of storms is capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail. A second area of storms is in SE NY, entering SW Connecticut, and should affect the Stamford to Bridgeport corridor with heavy thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm is reaching Stamford, CT, and is capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts as it intensifies.
Another strong storm is currently in central Orange county, and is moving ESE towards central Westchester county. For the longer range beyond the next hour, another round of storms is approaching western Orange County. Meanwhile, New York City continues to stay dry as the storms are staying just to the north. This is expected to continue, with the next several storms in line also staying just to the north of NYC.
6:38 PM: Another storm is currently entering Long Island, moving towards Sag Harbor, NY and the rest of eastern Long Island, tracking just south of the storm that just went through. This storm is not as intense as the previous storm, however it is also capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail, as well as potentially localized flooding.
The other storm is currently affecting Stamford, CT. This storm is also severe, and may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Another round of storms is entering Orange County, however most of these storms have dropped below severe levels. Still, they are capable of producing strong wind gusts and small hail.
Another severe storm is currently entering SW CT, and should affect places between Stamford and Norwalk, CT. This storm may also produce an isolated tornado should it intensify.
6:19 Special Update: The northern part of the area has become increasingly active over the last 2 hours, with a potential tornado having been observed in southwestern Connecticut. The current main area of concern is in northern Westchester county, out of a severe storm producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. This storm is moving SE, and should affect Stamford, CT within the next 30-45 minutes.
The storm that previously produced the potential SW CT tornado is now in the Long Island Sound, moving southeast. This storm is still severe, and is approaching Riverhead, NY. Damaging wind gusts and hail are expected with this storm, as well as the potential of an isolated tornado, as this storm has already produced a tornado warning previously.
There is a widespread area of strong to severe storms in southeastern CT, which are each capable of producing strong wind gusts and small hail. There is another severe storm in Somerset County, NJ moving SE, also capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts. Another storm will enter parts of Hunterdon and Warren counties soon, with another round of storms about to move into Orange County.
Meanwhile, New York City continues to stay dry as the storms are to the north and south of the city. Unless an isolated shower or storm forms in between, NYC is likely to go through today staying dry.
3:04 PM: The storm approaching northwestern New Jersey has dropped below severe levels, and continues to weaken. Like most storms that approached the area, this one has also weakened, as the parameters for severe weather in the area are not as supportive as places further north. This could also be the case with the rest of today, as most of the activity and the supportive parameters are to our north, with only relatively weak and isolated activity south of the NY/PA line.
Meanwhile, a storm near Ossing, NY has intensified and is now capable of producing small hail and gusty winds as it moves to the east, towards southwestern Connecticut.
2:25 PM: Several storms are currently affecting the area. There is a severe thunderstorm in central Long Island moving northeast, capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail, as well as heavy rainfall. The second area of storms is in northern Rockland county, moving east, however this storm is below severe levels and is weakening, which should lead to moderate rain and thunder.
The next storm to affect the area is currently in northeastern Pennsylvania, moving east southeast towards far northwestern Sussex county and western Orange county. This storm should approach that area within the next 40-60 minutes. This storm is very dangerous, and is capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and is also producing a potential tornado.