Yesterday was the start of what will be an active week. There were scattered showers in the area today, with the threat of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for tomorrow and Saturday. In addition to the storms, the heat and humidity is going to continue, with the heat index potentially near or over 100 degrees during several occasions.
Tomorrow will be warmer than today, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, which combined with dew points in the 70s, would lead to the heat index reaching the mid 90s. There is also the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could reach strong to severe levels. There is higher wind shear and lapse rates than in previous outbreaks, which would lead to higher severe weather chances, however the NAM and GFS significantly differ with tomorrow’s potential. Both models, however, seem to indicate that the worst of the storms will be to our north.
As a result, I am expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into tomorrow morning, some of which could be strong, but no severe storms are expected. Another round of storms, locally strong to severe, is possible tomorrow afternoon, but the highest risk of severe weather should be to the north of the area. If needed, updates will be posted between 2-4 PM tomorrow.
Thursday And Friday: Very Warm, Some Storms
Thursday will be slightly cooler and less humid, with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected. Thursday should be the only dry day, however. Friday will already bring a chance of storms as a warm front approaches the area, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
By Saturday, more uncertainty returns to the forecast. The models originally showed a strong cold front moving through on Saturday, however they have trended slower today, with the timing now expected to be on Sunday. This scenario would lead to Saturday being a very hot and humid day, with a scattered storm potential. High temperatures should be in the upper 90s to lower 100s away from the coast, and combined with dew points in the 70s, the heat index could reach the mid 100s for parts of the area. Sunday would also bring a chance of storms as the cold front moves through.
As I mentioned, there are differences with the potential solutions, and the timing could change. If the timing trends faster, then the front would move through on Saturday, and if the timing trends slower, then the storms would be mainly on Sunday, with Saturday not as hot with a slightly higher chance of storms. Stay tuned as more details become clear on this potential over the next few days.