This afternoon was a very active day in parts of the area, most notably in northern Orange county, where storms dumped up to nearly 6 inches of rain according to radar estimates, and in northern Bergen county, where a severe thunderstorm brought strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall and hail.
This is only the start of what will likely be an active week. Not all places are likely to get rain, but there is a chance of storms almost every day for the next several days, with no relief from the heat.
Rest Of Week Outlook:
Some storms are possible tomorrow night, however there is still uncertainty, as the models significantly vary with the location and intensity of the heaviest rain. There is a potential MCS that may approach the area, and as mentioned above, the models show different solutions, some bringing it to the north of the area, others to the south, and some don't bring rain to the area. More details on this potential will come tomorrow. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Wednesday should be drier, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm is still possible, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Thursday is expected to dry up, with temperatures slightly warming up.
Weekend Outlook: Hot, Humid And Potentially Stormy
For Friday, there is a storm potential as the next storm approaches the area. There is uncertainty with the timing of this event, as the models continue to have slight changes with each run, which can be expected at this range, however the overall set up does show a storm to our north sometime between Friday night and Saturday night, bringing a cold front through.
If the slower solution verifies, Saturday would be very hot and humid, with highs in the mid to upper 90s, with 100 degrees possible in the warmest case scenario, along with the potential of strong to severe thunderstorm. The latest models, however, have trended faster with the timing, which would already bring the storms through the area by the early afternoon, reducing both severe weather chances and the temperatures. Stay tuned for more details on this potential.
Afterwards, the models bring in a much colder air mass, with highs dropping into the lower 80s and low temperatures into the lower 60s. Looking at previous cold fronts this summer, however, the models also kept showing colder temperatures returning behind each cold front, and slowly backed off the cold as the event approached the shorter range. At this time, I am leaning towards the warmer scenario, where temperatures after the cold front stay warm, in the upper 80s to lower 90s, however this is still in the longer range and may change.