July 12: Heat And Humidity To Return

Heavy showers and thunderstorms affected the western parts of the area earlier this evening, but like Saturday’s storms, they dissipated before they reached the eastern parts of the area, including parts of NE NJ and NYC. There is more hope for rain tomorrow, which is discussed below, though afterwards dry conditions are likely to return to the immediate NYC area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Due to the cloud cover and rain tomorrow, temperatures should be colder than today, reaching only the lower to mid 80s, though with higher dew points in the lower to mid 70s, it should be much more humid, feeling like the upper 80s. A SSE wind is expected for tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the potential for heavy rain returns for the immediate NYC area, but considering how the last few rain potentials have gone, whether NYC gets the heavy rain tomorrow or not is a question. There is still uncertainty on the axis of the heaviest rain, as a low pressure should form around the area that would enhance the rain, but it is uncertain where the low pressure develops.

If it happens near or slightly west of NYC, the result would be heavy rainfall for northern NJ, NYC, Long Island and S CT, reaching 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts. If this happens to the east of NYC, however, the heaviest rain would stay in Long Island and southern CT, with lighter rain for NYC and northern New Jersey. At this time, most of the models are showing the low pressure east of NYC, except for the NAM which has it further inland. For this forecast, I am following the second scenario where the low pressure is east of NYC, with rain for Long Island and S CT between 1 and 2 inches, the immediate NYC area reaching 1/2 to locally 1 inch, with NW NJ seeing 1/4 to 1/2 inch with locally higher amounts.

Thursday And Friday: Hot, Very Humid

Thursday and Friday are likely to be dry, as a high pressure temporarily returns to the area with the next storm being well to the west. Meanwhile, with the humidity in place, a much warmer air mass will return to the area, leading to high temperatures significantly warming up. Thursday should reach the lower to mid 90s away from the coast, and with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, it will feel like the upper 90s.

Friday should be even hotter, with 850 mb temperatures nearing 20c. This, combined with mainly to partly sunny skies, will lead to high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Along with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, it will feel like the lower 100s.

Next Weekend: Storm Potential Returns

By next weekend, however, the next storm approaches, bringing colder temperatures and the potential for more rain. On Friday, the cold front should affect places to our west, in the Great Lakes region, and the front should affect the area on Saturday. This time, there may be a slightly higher chance of severe weather, with some wind shear in place. At this time, a widespread severe weather outbreak is not expected, however there is still time for things to change, so that potential will be kept an eye on.

After this round of storms, temperatures should remain warm. As the warm air mass persists, high temperatures should remain very warm, in the 80s and 90s.

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