July 10: Dry Conditions Persist For Now

Today’s bust for New York City was one of the biggest busts of the year. The set up suggested a heavy rain scenario, which did verify for western New Jersey and Orange County, NY, as well as Long Island and S CT which got heavy rain from scattered yet heavy thunderstorms, however the storm line collapsed at the last minute, preventing NE NJ and NYC from seeing any rain today. In fact, looking at a larger picture of the region, other than eastern Maine and SE CT, the immediate NYC area was the only area not to get rain out of the entire Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

This storm was expected to help end the dry conditions, which is what happened for Long Island and NW NJ. Northwestern NJ ended up with significant rainfall today, with a few places reaching 3-5 inches. In fact, the Allentown, PA area had their fourth wettest day on record, with rainfall over 5 inches. For NYC, however, the dry conditions are expected to persist for now, with the next hope of ending the dry conditions coming next week. More details on that potential have been posted below.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow should be drier for those places that got rain today, and fortunately, should also be less humid. With NW winds, high temperatures should rise into the upper 80s for northern NJ with a few lower 90s possible for the immediate NYC area, though Long Island and S CT should stay cooler, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The storm will still have lingering showers and thunderstorms across the area tomorrow, however with lower humidity, these storms should not be similar to those of the last 3 days, which were able to produce heavy rainfall. The areas more likely to see isolated showers should be north and east of NYC.

Next Week: Hot, Humid And Stormy

Monday is likely to be the only day of the week with no rain expected for the area. With a south wind and warmer 850 mb temperatures returning into the area, high temperatures should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for northern NJ. The dew points should start to slowly increase, reaching the mid 60s.

Starting Tuesday, however, the pattern should change. A more humid air mass should enter the area, leading to a warm, humid and stormy pattern. The dew points should increase to the lower to mid 70s, which combined with temperatures in the upper 80s with a few lower 90s away from the coast, would lead to uncomfortable conditions. At the same time, the precipitable water values should be over 2 inches, and with more moisture, this should lead to a threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day between Tuesday and Saturday.

As this should be a more prolonged potential of rain than today’s storm, most of the area is likely to see rain at least some time next week. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, however severe thunderstorms are not expected due to the lack of supportive parameters.

The potential stated above is based on the majority of the models at this time. The NAM is different, however, and if it verifies, the rain potential would only be brief, with NYC staying mainly dry again, and dry conditions would already return by Thursday, though its latest run is wetter for NYC. The previous NAM solutions are unlikely at this time considering that they go against the rest of the models, however it is something to keep an eye on. Stay tuned for more details for next week’s rain potential.

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