After another comfortable day today, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, things are about to change tomorrow. An approaching storm from our west is going to bring the risk of rain and some thunderstorms tomorrow night, producing locally heavy rainfall. Thursday and Friday should continue with the comfortable weather, though starting next weekend, uncertainty returns in the forecast.
The approaching storm is going to bring mainly cloudy skies tomorrow, which should keep temperatures on the chilly side. High temperatures should be in the mid to upper 60s inland, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the rest of the area.
Periods of rain should start tomorrow afternoon, becoming locally heavy during the late afternoon and evening hours, which is when some thunder is also possible. The rain is expected to taper off late tomorrow night, bringing a total of 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain with locally higher amounts up to 1 inch.
Comfortable Conditions Return Late This Week
By Thursday, some leftover showers are possible in the morning, though the storm system is briefly going to draw in warmer temperatures, leading to Thursday’s temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area except for the immediate coast, which should be in the lower to mid 70s. A few places near or SW of NYC may reach 80 degrees.
After the storm exits the region, a colder air mass is briefly going to return. As a result, Friday is going to be mainly sunny with high temperatures slightly colder, in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid 70s for the immediate NYC area.
Weekend To Early Week: Warmer, Stormy Conditions Possible
Things get much more complicated for this weekend. First of all, I am not using today’s GFS runs for this time period, as they are outlier runs due to convective feedback issues. The GFS decides to take a small area of heavy rain in SE Texas, and brings it all the way to the Ohio Valley, then turns it southeast towards Virginia, which changes the entire pattern for this time period. The GFS only keeps this as a very weak low pressure, if even that, indicating that this is an error.
By Saturday, warmer conditions should return into the area, with high temperatures back into the lower 80s. Sunday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures potentially reaching the mid to upper 80s. Note that there is still uncertainty with the extent of the warmth, which leads to a potential temperature range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s.
A cold front should then move through the area on Monday. There is some uncertainty with the exact timing, however if it moves through on Monday afternoon/evening, the potential for thunderstorms may be there. By Tuesday, another trough should move into the area, leading to colder high temperatures, back into the 70s.