Below, I will post short updates on the current observations and short term storm forecasts. Once again, I would like to note that today’s storms could become dangerous, and should not be taken lightly. My outlook for today is in the post below this one, along with my forecast maps for today.
4:26 PM: The storms have now ended across most of the area, with some leftover light rain. Today’s moderate risk ended up failing, as the biggest risk for thunderstorms ended up in New England, however it only became clear that the worst of the storms would stay to our north not too long before the line moved through.
Temperatures have now dropped into the 70s, and along with the wind switching direction and the lack of severe weather parameters, the threat for severe weather has ended in the area. The next update will be posted tomorrow evening.
2:39 PM: There is no radar shot yet, though a strong thunderstorm has just formed slightly north of Bridgeport, CT. This storm is moving NE, and may affect New Haven, CT within the next 10-20 minutes, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds.
2:32 PM: A strong thunderstorm is currently in north central NJ, and is moving ENE. This cell should affect all of Rockland, NY county and western Passaic, NJ. It may brush northern Bergen county, later moving into Westchester County, NY. This storm is capable of producing gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall.
1:51 PM Update: Looking at the latest data, it is possible that the moderate risk may have to be downgraded.
Despite the storms moving towards the area with the higher parameters, they have failed to intensify. Instead, they are weakening and splitting up, and are now nothing more than a scattered thin line of strong to severe thunderstorms, instead of a solid, thick line. In addition, the best parameters are now to our north, and with a much more stable air mass behind this front, it is possible that today’s moderate risk may have failed.
That is not to say that there won’t be strong/severe thunderstorms, there are still strong thunderstorms currently approaching the western parts of the region that may affect places just north of NYC within the next 2 hours, though at this time, today’s outbreak does not seem to live up to its potential.
12:17 PM: Clouds are now moving into the area once again. Due to the period of sunshine we had this morning, temperatures quickly warmed up across the area, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, however this warm up has now considerably slowed down. The squall line is currently in central Pennsylvania and quickly moving east. Due to the fast motion of this line, it should already begin to affect the western parts of the area within the next 1-2 hours, and move on to the immediate NYC area within the next 1.5 to 3 hours. Updates will be posted on the storms once they reach the area.
11:15 AM: URGENT — The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for the whole area. With a 5% to 10% risk for tornadoes today, severe thunderstorms that affect the area have the potential to produce tornadoes, along with damaging wind gusts and hail.
It is also important to note that today’s storms will be fast moving. This is going to be especially dangerous, as storms may approach places faster than it may seem. Stay tuned as more details will be posted once the storms reach the area.
10:27 AM: The majority of the area is now under partly sunny skies, which is allowing for temperatures to start rising into the 80s with dew points entering the 70s. This is also allowing for the atmosphere to destabilize, which should enhance the severe weather threat later this afternoon.
Despite the moderate severe thunderstorm risk, it does not mean that the whole area will see strong to severe thunderstorms. There can easily be a case where one thunderstorm becomes stronger and another area of thunderstorms weakens, though that does not mean that today’s risk should be taken lightly.