This weekend is expected to be quite active, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible both today and Sunday, being more likely on Sunday. Below, I will post my Day 1 and Day 2 severe weather outlooks as well as a brief update on next week’s weather. If needed, storm updates will be posted today and tomorrow.
As I have mentioned yesterday, the greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms today should be in New England, including Connecticut, along with western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, where I placed a 15% risk. In addition, a higher risk for activity is also possible in the Washington DC area. For our area, there is the risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, however the worst of the storms should stay to our north.
The factors for severe weather are slightly more supportive than they were in previous outbreaks, including CAPE between 1000 and 1500, LI between -2 and -4, and wind shear between 30 and 40 knots. The more detailed short range models keep our area dry through tonight, and while scattered thunderstorms are possible today, it is also very possible that the whole day stays dry with only an isolated thunderstorm or two, as the activity stays to our north. The main risk today in thunderstorms for the area should be strong wind gusts, and further north in New England, there is the possibility of isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail.
Sunday appears to have a much better chance for severe weather, and if the current outlook verifies, this may be one of the most active severe weather days so far this year. A strong low pressure is going to stay to our north, in central interior New York, keeping our area in the warm sector, and along with a warm south to southwest wind, high temperatures are going to rise into the mid to upper 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 80s inland. If there is enough sunshine early on in the day, some places may reach the lower 90s once again.
Along with the area being in the warm sector, a severe weather risk is also in place. Parameters for tomorrow are supportive of severe weather, especially with wind shear between 50 and 70 knots, CAPE between 1000 and 2000, and LI between -3 and -5. Looking at these parameters, along with the models, it appears likely that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms, possibly in the form of a derecho, should move through tomorrow afternoon. The biggest risk with tomorrow’s storms should be damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes, with other risks being heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
For now, I placed a 30% risk over the central and eastern parts of the area for tomorrow, and while I have a slight risk in place, it is a possibility that a moderate risk may be needed for tomorrow.
Next Week Update:
The outlook for early next week remains the same, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures should be in the 50s away from the immediate coast.
By the middle of next week, a disturbance approaches the area from the west, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and possibly Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By Friday, however, a warmer air mass should return to the area, with high temperatures returning into the 80s once again by next weekend.