June 4: Warm, Stormy Weekend Ahead

The warmth continued across the area today, with some places seeing their third consecutive day with high temperatures near or over 90 degrees. My severe weather risk for today ended up being too low for the region, as thunderstorms did form today in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, though most of the storms dissipated before reaching the area. While the storms did not reach our area today, we will not be as lucky during this weekend.

Short Term Forecast: An area of strong thunderstorms from Pennsylvania is approaching the western parts of the area, and could reach the eastern parts of the area overnight. While these storms are likely to weaken by the time that they reach the area, they may still be capable of producing strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

As with the past few days, the very warm temperatures should continue tomorrow, with high temperatures in the upper 80s with a few lower 90s inland, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area. Long Island and S CT should be in the mid to upper 80s, with the immediate coast slightly colder, near 80 degrees.

The thunderstorm potential tomorrow, however, is uncertain. While previous model runs were more supportive of severe thunderstorms, the latest models shift the focus of tomorrow’s severe weather to the interior Northeast. Despite the main risk staying to our north, this does not mean that there won’t be thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms are still possible over the area tomorrow, and some storms still have the potential to become strong or severe, leading to a 10% risk over the area in my Day 2 severe weather outlook, which can be found in the Sever Weather/Tropical page.

Sunday’s Outlook: Storm Chances Increasing

Instead of Saturday, the attention now turns to Sunday for severe thunderstorm potential. While yesterday, the models showed an intense low pressure for this time of the year moving near our area, bringing a chilly heavy rain, they have now trended north, placing our area in the warm sector, and along with that, in the severe storm potential area. While the exact location of the storm is still uncertain, temperatures have the potential to reach the upper 80s once again if there is enough sunshine early on.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, the latest models show the cold front moving through the area, and along with many factors for severe weather in place, including wind shear between 50 and 70 knots, CAPE between 1000 and 2000, and LI between -3 and -5, this would bring the potential of widespread strong to severe thunderstorms for the area. As I have previously mentioned, there is still some uncertainty, and the storm may still end up further south which would greatly reduce the severe weather chance, however there is growing confidence that Sunday could bring strong to severe thunderstorms in at least parts of the area. Stay tuned for more details on this potential event.

**The map below represents my current thoughts, and is subject to change.**

Next Week Outlook: Colder Temperatures Return

After several days of very warm temperatures in the 80s and 90s, next week should finally bring a return to colder temperatures. With a colder air mass moving in place, high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday are going to drop into the mid to upper 70s for the interior, the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 70s for Long Island and S CT. Overnight temperatures should drop into the 50s away from the coast.

By Wednesday, the next storm may affect the area. At this time, the models are showing a coastal storm to our south that brings a chilly rain on Wednesday. I do not think that this is the more likely solution, especially considering that with the past few storms, the longer range models took some of these storms too far south/east of their actual positions. For now, I am expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Late next week could stay chilly after the storm exits the area, though afterwards there are signs that a warm up may take place. The longer range models have been showing a ridge returning to the area by next weekend, potentially bringing high temperatures into the 80s and 90s once again.

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