With partly sunny skies in place, today was yet another very warm day, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the area.
Short Term Forecast: some thunderstorms are approaching, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. For the rest of the area, a 5% severe thunderstorm risk remains in place, which has been in place since Tuesday (my severe weather forecasts can be seen in the Severe Weather/Tropical page.) Some storms may still be able to produce heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning, with the rest of the area seeing moderate to occasionally heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Despite the cold front having moved through, temperatures are going to stay very warm, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for northern New Jersey and NYC, in the lower to mid 80s for Long Island and S CT, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate coast.
Tomorrow is also going to bring the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, though the rest of the area should also stay mainly dry, with the nearest area of storms staying well to our west, in the Ohio Valley, from the next system that should move on to affect our area on Saturday.
Weekend Forecast: Stormy, Then Colder
By Saturday, another cold front should approach the area, though this time, the parameters should be better than today, especially with higher wind shear, which is an important factor for severe weather. At this time, I am adding a 10% risk for severe thunderstorms in my Day 3 severe weather forecast, along with a mention of locally severe storms in the 5-day forecast (both pages will be updated soon). High temperatures are going to stay warm, in the mid to upper 80s, though places that do not see thunderstorms could end up even warmer.
By Sunday, temperatures should finally cool down. With the cold front having moved through, high temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper 70s across the area. Meanwhile, the models are showing an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms affecting the area, bringing potentially up to 1 inch of rain. While at this time, I do not think that rainfall amounts will be that high, it is a possibility that needs to be kept an eye on.
Early To Mid Week Outlook: Chilly, Then Warming Up
By Monday, the colder air mass should have reached the area, leading to low temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s away from the coast, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. By Tuesday, temperatures continue to warm up, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs. Afterwards, there is indication that the next storm may affect the area during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame, potentially bringing the next chance of thunderstorms.