June 28, 2010 Morning Update

There are several updates this morning that have been mentioned in this post, including Tropical Storm Alex and its potential impact on the United States, today’s hot, humid and stormy conditions, and a brief update on what we may be looking at for the 4th of July weekend.

A full update will be posted late tonight, focusing on the longer range.

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As we are already seeing, with mainly sunny skies in place, temperatures are quickly rising across the area. Yesterday ended up being very hot and humid, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, and today could end up even warmer in parts of the area.

As long as there is not as much cloud cover during the rest of the morning, high temperatures are going to be able to rise into the mid to upper 90s for the immediate NYC area and places further south and SW. With dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, the heat index may reach the lower 100s.

Today’s Severe Weather Potential: 5-10% Risk

As mentioned in Saturday’s update, today’s severe weather potential is not very high, which is mainly due to the lack of supportive parameters shown on the models. The parameters continue to be unimpressive for today’s event, with the lowest parameters on the NAM and GFS over the area. In addition, the timing of the storms is not as supportive as other outbreaks were for widespread severe weather, likely to move through between 2 and 6 PM.

At this time, today’s highest severe weather risk in the NYC area should be in Connecticut, spreading into the rest of southern New England, where a 10% risk for severe weather is in place, with a dotted area representing a potential higher risk zone. The east central Mid Atlantic also has a 10% risk for severe weather, with the rest of the NYC area in a 5-10% risk, where scattered thunderstorms are possible, a few of which could become strong. The biggest risk with today’s storms should be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.

Potential Changes: This outlook may still need to be changed around a little. It is possible that the rest of the area may need to be included in the 10% risk, with a 15% risk for parts of Connecticut and SNE.

Should any severe storms affect the area, updates will be posted between 3-5 PM.

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4th of July Weekend Update

With a dry pattern developing after today’s storm potential, next weekend is also expected to stay dry. By then, however, as the trough that should be over the area through next week should exit, much warmer temperatures should return. Saturday should already warm up into the mid 80s, with Sunday the 4th of July likely to have high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s at this time.

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Tropical Storm Alex:

After Saturday’s update, Tropical Storm Alex has followed a rather confusing path, first intensifying while moving inland into the Yucatan peninsula, then nearly stalling offshore while intensifying, with the low pressure being nearly as deep as a category 1 hurricane but the winds only reaching weak tropical storm criteria. Alex is now starting to drift NNW while slowly intensifying, with warm SSTs in its area, however the wind shear is not as supportive, already approaching 20 knots and slowly intensifying.

At this time, I am expecting Alex to keep moving NNW and affect the southern Texas coast by late this week, most likely as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, however there is still uncertainty with the intensity forecast, and it is possible that Alex may be slightly weaker or stronger. Alex is not expected to have any significant impact on the oil spill area.

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