June 27: Dry Pattern Develops

Blog Updates:

5 Day Forecasts: The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated tonight.

In addition, my 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook has been posted in the “Long Range Forecasts” section. I was unable to go into as much detail as I would’ve liked to, however I did briefly cover some important factors for my forecast.

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After a long stretch of hot and humid conditions, today finally brought rain to the area, which was useful as it has been dry lately, and fortunately the storms were not severe, due to the lack of supportive parameters. Today’s rain event is going to mark a turning point in the pattern, as we are now entering a dry pattern where it may not rain for potentially 2 weeks.

For the short term, there is an area of collapsing storms in western Pennsylvania. While these storms should not have a significant impact on the area, isolated activity is possible for the northwestern parts of the area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

While the heat is going to continue for tomorrow, humid conditions are finally not expected. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area and mid 80s inland, and with a WSW wind, Long Island and S CT are also going to warm up into the mid to upper 80s. The immediate coast should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile, the dew points are going to drop into the 50s, which will prevent humid conditions tomorrow.

The area should also be dry tomorrow with partly sunny skies, however some rain and storms are expected in parts of the Northeast. While these storms should be mainly scattered and non-severe, Maine has a higher chance of seeing a steady period of rain tomorrow. Some storms are also possible in extreme southern VA due to the cold front.

This Week: Colder, Less Humid

As an unusually chilly air mass for this time of the year moves in, temperatures are going to also drop. Tuesday night will mark the start of this drop, with low temperatures cooling down into the 50s away from the immediate coast. Wednesday’s high temperatures will also be colder, in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, and lower to mid 70s inland.

Thursday is also expected to be chilly, with morning temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and in the mid to upper 50s elsewhere except for parts of NYC, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures should be in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the mid to upper 70s for the immediate NYC area. Friday should be slightly warmer than Thursday. No rain is expected during this time frame.

Next Weekend And Beyond: Heat, Humidity Return

As the trough starts to exit, a ridge should build in by next weekend, bringing the return of hot and humid conditions. Saturday should not be very warm, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, however Sunday is going to be hot and humid again, with high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the 4th of July. Monday could be even warmer, with high temperatures potentially in the lower to mid 90s, however this is still uncertain.

There is a lot of uncertainty for next week’s forecast, especially with Alex’s remnants and how they may affect the pattern, however one thing that is likely is that it should be hot, humid and dry. It is possible that Alex’s remnants may bring some showers and storms to our area next week, sometime between June 6 and 8, however this is still uncertain, and if this scenario does not verify, dry conditions should continue through all of next week.

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