While today started out mainly sunny, the day ended the opposite way, with cloudy skies and some scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the area. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight, with the next few days also being hot and humid. Afterwards, though, the hot and humid conditions are going to temporarily end.
Tomorrow is expected to be partly cloudy, however temperatures are expected to warm up. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. With a S to SSE wind, Long Island and S CT should warm up into the lower to mid 80s, with the immediate coast slightly colder, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
While an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible as a warm front moves through the area, especially in the western parts of the area, severe weather is not expected tomorrow, though there is the possibility that any isolated storm could become strong.
Monday: Hot, Humid And Stormy
Monday is going to bring temperatures as warm as Thursday’s temperatures, if not slightly warmer. With the 850 mb temperatures reaching 19c to 21c, and mostly sunny skies possible early in the day, high temperatures are going to be able to rise into the mid to possibly upper 90s away from the coast, with even the coast warming up into the upper 80s to lower 90s with a SW wind. The only limiting factor to the temperatures could be the cloud cover, which would slightly lower the temperatures if there is more cloud cover than currently expected.
The heat index could be a problem again for Monday. With dew points in the lower 70s combined with high temperatures in the 90s, the heat index could reach the lower 100s. This, again, follows the scenario that there are mainly sunny skies during the first half of the day, and it is possible that there could be slightly lower temperatures and dew points, which would lead to a slightly colder but still very warm heat index, in the mid 90s.
Monday is also expected to bring widespread scattered thunderstorms to the area as the cold front moves through, and in fact, it may be more than a week until the next time that the area sees additional rainfall. At this time, however, widespread severe thunderstorms like those of Thursday are not expected. On Thursday, the parameters for severe weather were unusually impressive, however for this event the parameters are not supportive of severe weather, including relatively low CAPE and LI, low wind shear, and unsupportive lapse rates. While I do expect thunderstorms on Monday, widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected, and at this time the area only has a 5% risk of severe thunderstorms.
Rest Of Next Week: Colder, Less Humid
Tuesday is still expected to be warm due to the warm air mass still exiting the area, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for NE NJ and NYC, lower to mid 80s for NW NJ and Orange County, NY, and in the mid 80s for Long Island and S CT, however the humidity is expected to significantly decrease. On Wednesday, the temperatures will follow as a large trough enters the area, cooling down into the upper 70s to lower 80s, slightly colder inland, where they should stay for the rest of the week. Low temperatures should be in the 50s to lower 60s away from the coast.
By Saturday, however, as another warm air mass builds into the area, the temperatures should start to warm up once again. High temperatures for Saturday are likely to be in the mid 80s away from the coast, with Sunday warming up potentially even more, with 4th of July likely to be warm and dry at this time.