June 25: Update On Next Week, Tropical Depression 1

Only a partial update was posted tonight. The 5-Day Forecast and the Severe Weather/Tropical pages were not updated.


After yesterday’s storms, today proved to be a much nicer day, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. The heat and humidity are going to briefly return by late this weekend and early next week, however afterwards the heat and humidity are going to be taking a long break.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will continue with the nice conditions, with similar temperatures expected. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, and with a WSW to SW wind, Long Island and S CT should stay in the lower to mid 80s, with the immediate coast slightly colder.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow night, however the majority of these storms should stay to our north. Note that not the whole area should be seeing rain on Saturday night, and these storms are not expected to be severe.

Sunday And Monday: Hot, Humid, And Some Storms

Sunday should be slightly warmer than Saturday, especially south and SW of NYC, with partly cloudy skies. The western parts of the area should have a WSW wind with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, however the eastern parts of the area should have an ENE wind, which should prevent the temperatures from warming up too much, keeping temperatures in the lower to occasionally mid 80s.

While Sunday should stay dry, Monday will not be the same. A cold front will be approaching on Monday, bringing temperatures again into the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast, but with a southwest wind, Long Island and S CT should be warmer than the previous 2 days, reaching the mid to upper 80s.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for Monday afternoon and evening, however there are several factors at this time that may prevent this from becoming a widespread severe weather outbreak. The NAM has very unsupportive parameters for severe weather, especially by having very little wind shear, and while the CAPE and LI are high on the GFS, wind shear is missing once again. This was the case in several days that had potential for severe weather this year, and as a result, there were only a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Unless the models change with the scenario for Monday, only scattered storms are expected, some of which could become strong.

Mid To Late Next Week: Colder, Then Warming Up

Tuesday should not be much colder, with high temperatures still in the mid 80s away from the coast, but the humidity should decrease. As a colder air mass moves into the area, high temperatures are going to drop into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with low temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s away from the coast.

By late next week, there is unusually high uncertainty with the forecast, mainly due to significant variations with the models’ handling of Tropical Depression One’s possible approach into the Gulf Of Mexico. However, as the trough will have been at least a few days over the region by then, it is reasonable to assume that it will start to move out of the area, as some models have also been showing, with warmer conditions returning. This is the scenario that I am expecting for now, with temperatures by next weekend warming up into the mid-upper 80s again.

**Tropics Update:**

Tropical Depression 1, the first of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, has formed late this afternoon. At this time, it is expected to intensify into a tropical storm and make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday. There are, however, a few observations that might change the forecast. At this time, TD1 appears to be moving west, unlike the models that show it moving due NW.

For now, I am leaning towards a further south solution than the models, however I did highlight the possibility in the southern end of the potential track area that TD1 simply moves west along the coast of Honduras, either dissipating or making landfall in the southern Yucatan Peninsula. This is unlikely at this time, however this possibility does have to be watched.

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