June 25 Morning Update

There were several changes in the model solutions for the next few days, as well as important updates on the tropics, which are covered in this brief morning update.

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Yesterday’s Severe Weather: A summary of yesterday’s event both in the area and in the region was posted in the Storm Summary page. This summary may be updated over the next day or two if new information comes in.

***Update: Bridgeport EF-1 Tornado Confirmed Today***

Weekend Storms:

The models are now showing an area of storms on Saturday night. There is uncertainty with the exact placement of the storms and how much rain falls, however the probability of storms for Saturday night is likely to be upgraded to a 40-50% chance with tonight’s update. Sunday’s storm risk remains low for now.

Tropics:

In the Atlantic Ocean, despite being further south than expected, 93L has become better organized today, and may become a tropical depression over the next 2 days, the first of the Atlantic hurricane season. This storm may later move into the Gulf of Mexico, however there is uncertainty on what part of the Gulf of Mexico it reaches, where at this time, I am leaning towards the further south solutions, taking 93L towards the southern Gulf of Mexico. More details will come with a full update tonight.

In the Pacific Ocean, Darby and Celia have both gone through impressive strengthening, with Celia becoming a Category 5 hurricane, which is very unusual for the Eastern Pacific ocean.

Hurricane Celia:
160 mph Wind / 926 mb

Hurricane Celia, currently well southwest of Mexico, remains under a favorable environment as mentioned in yesterday’s update, which led to additional strengthening, however Celia intensified more than expected, reaching Category 5 status this morning. Despite the models showing weakening, Celia remains under a favorable environment, and additional slight intensification is possible. While it is uncertain how much Celia strengthens, if at all, it is expected to peak sometime in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, Celia should start to move into a less favorable environment, and should start to weaken. Celia may become a tropical storm by the middle of next week.

Hurricane Darby:
105 mph Wind / 967 mb

Hurricane Darby, as expected, has intensified into a Category 2 hurricane, however it remains under favorable conditions for additional intensification. The current forecast expects Darby to peak as a high-end Category 3 hurricane, and while there is uncertainty, it is possible that Darby may intensify beyond the current forecast if the environment remains very favorable over the next 2 days. Afterwards, Darby is expected to significantly slow down, if not stall, and along with increased wind shear, should lead to Darby weakening. Darby may later change direction and move NE towards Mexico.

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