June 22: Heat To Peak On Thursday

So far, today started out mainly sunny, with increasing clouds due to an approaching area of rain and storms. Despite this, temperatures are still warm, in the mid to upper 80s, but the northwestern parts of the area did not warm up as much due to cloud cover, staying in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The next few days are going to be much warmer than this, however, and along with increasing humidity, will make for an uncomfortable Wednesday and Thursday.

Tonight’s Outlook: Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight, especially in the western parts of the area, where up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible. Further east, there should be less rainfall.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be much warmer and more humid than today. With a warmer air mass in place, high temperatures are going to rise into the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. With a west with, places such as southern Connecticut and Long Island will also warm up into the upper 80s. Along with higher humidity, the heat index will be in the upper 90s.

The rest of the Mid Atlantic will also be hot and humid tomorrow. The warmest place should be Virginia, where high temperatures should reach the upper 90s, locally reaching 100 degrees. Meanwhile, the Northeast will be chilly. High temperatures should be in the 70s and 80s, with a few 60s in Maine. The region should stay dry, though there is a chance of storms for western New York, NW PA and West Virginia, which the majority of these storms should stay below severe levels.

Thursday: Verty Hot, Humid, And Stormy

Thursday is going to be the warmest day so far this year in parts of the area. With partly cloudy skies and 850 mb temperatures between 18c and 20c, high temperatures are going to reach the 90s across most of the area, even including parts of Long Island and southern CT, except for the immediate coast. If there is enough sunshine, parts of the immediate NYC area may even reach the upper 90s. With dew points in the 70s, the heat index could reach the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching the area on Thursday. There is still uncertainty on the timing of the storms and the parameters, however there is the potential for storms that could locally be strong or severe. For now, I placed the area under a 5% risk of severe weather, however this may change with tomorrow’s update.

Friday Into Next Week: Still Warm, But Not Hot

After the cold front moves through, colder temperatures are expected for Friday, with high temperatures cooling down into the mid to upper 80s. Saturday should be slightly colder, though Sunday will warm up again as the warm air mass reaches our area again. High temperatures as a result will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Monday should have similar temperatures, though afterwards there is much more uncertainty.

There is going to be an unusually cold air mass moving into northern New England, creating a tight temperature gradient between northern New England and the northern Mid Atlantic. The question is where this tight gradient sets up. At this time, I am leaning towards our area being on the northern end of the warm air mass, with high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s, though this is not final yet and can still change.

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