June 21: Heat, Humidity To Intensify

After yesterday’s hot and humid conditions, today was still hot, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, even near the immediate coast due a west wind, but there was less humidity. Unfortunately, this will not be the case over the next few days, with Wednesday and Thursday potentially being the warmest days so far this summer.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow, like today, will also be hot, though humidity will be on the increase again. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast, but with a south wind, southern Connecticut and Long Island will not be as warm as today, with high temperatures in the lower 80s.

The area will stay dry tomorrow with partly sunny skies. The far western parts of the region will be dealing with storms, though a widespread severe weather outbreak is not anticipated. Tomorrow night will be different though, as this area of storms approaches the area. The best chance for rain should be in the northern parts of the area, where rain amounts may locally reach 1/4 to 1/2 inch, otherwise light rain amounts are possible over the area.

Wednesday And Thursday: Very Hot, Humid

Wednesday and Thursday may be the warmest days so far this year. With a very warm air mass including 850 mb temperatures between 18c and 20c, temperatures are going to rise into the 90s again. Wednesday should bring temperatures into the lower to mid 90s, and due to a west wind, Long Island and S CT will also warm up into the upper 80s. With dew points in the upper 60s, humidity is also expected, and may lead to the heat index reaching the mid to upper 90s. Due to the lack of supportive parameters, no severe weather is expected, though some strong to severe storms may be possible in the western parts of the region.

Thursday is likely to be warmer out of the two days. As the warmest of the air mass moves over the area, despite mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures are going to be able to reach the mid 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area, and with dew points in the lower 70s, may lead to the heat index reaching 100 degrees. There is some uncertainty to this forecast though, as the NAM is currently the warmest model, with the GFS being colder.

At this time, a severe weather outbreak on Thursday is not expected. Despite favorable parameters, with moderate CAPE/LI amounts and relatively high wind shear, a combination that we were unable to get many times this year, the timing of the cold front may not be supportive, which may lead to the best chance for severe weather staying to our south/east. However, as I previously mentioned, there is uncertainty on Thursday, as for example, the 18z NAM was slower and brought a higher risk of strong/severe storms to the area, while the GFS is faster and not as warm. More details on this potential will be posted in tomorrow’s update.

Friday And Next Weekend: Slightly Colder, But Warmth Returns

Friday and Saturday should be colder, due to a colder air mass, with high temperatures in the mid 80s, however Sunday should warm up ahead of the next cold front, with highs potentially returning into the 90s. There is still uncertainty with this time frame, so stay tuned for more details.

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