June 19: Hot Tomorrow, Warm Week Ahead

Tropics: Forecasts for Tropical Storms Blas and Celia in the East Pacific.
Severe Weather: Outlooks for tomorrow and Monday have been posted.

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Today was yet another very warm day, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s inland, though a south wind prevented this warmth from reaching places such as Long Island and southern Connecticut, where high temperatures reached the mid to upper 70s. Tomorrow is going to be different, however, with warmer temperatures across the area, including Long Island and southern CT.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to start what is going to be a very warm week. With 850 mb temperatures between 16c and 18c, high temperatures are going to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast, with parts of the immediate NYC area potentially reaching the mid 90s. With dew points in the mid 60s, the heat index may reach the upper 90s. Long Island and S CT excluding the immediate coast should also warm up into the mid 80s.

Meanwhile, a weak cold front will approach the area. While the storms should stay to our north and east, a few storms are possible, especially in the eastern parts of the area. There is a 5% chance of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in New England tomorrow, though the parts of the area that may have a slightly higher chance of seeing scattered thunderstorms are in southern and central Connecticut, where the NAM has been consistently showing an area of potentially strong thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon. Long Island, NYC and NE NJ also have a slight chance of seeing an isolated storm, with places south and west of those areas likely to stay dry.

Next Week’s Outlook: Very Warm, Humid And Stormy

Despite a cold front moving through the area on Sunday, it is only expected to be a weak cold front, which will have little influence on the area other than changing the wind direction towards the west. Monday should continue to be warm but slightly less humid, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. Long Island and southern Connecticut should also warm up into the mid to potentially upper 80s with a west wind.

Tuesday is also expected to be warm, however there is the potential for isolated thunderstorms as a low pressure approaches from our west. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, with slightly more humid conditions.

Wednesday and Thursday bring a higher chance of scattered thunderstorms to the area. With a low pressure to our north and an approaching cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on both days. There is still uncertainty whether these storms become severe or not, however looking at the pattern so far this year, they would be more likely to stay below severe levels than bringing a severe weather outbreak, however this can still change. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast on both days, and there is the potential that a few parts of the area reach the lower 90s on either day.

By Friday, the cold front should have already crossed the area. Temperatures are going to cool down for Friday, returning into the lower 80s with lower humidity. This break from the warmth, however, is going to be short lasting, as another ridge is then expected to move into the area either late next weekend or the early week. There is uncertainty with the placement and intensity of this ridge, though the 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF bring in much warmer 850 mb temperatures, which if verifies, could bring temperatures well into the 90s. More details will come once there is less uncertainty on this time frame.

Brief Tropics Overview: (Can also be found in the “Severe Weather/Tropics” section)

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blas is currently at 65 mph, and is expected to slightly intensify before weakening by next week. Tropical Storm Celia is steadily intensifying and may become a hurricane tomorrow, potentially reaching Category 2 intensity by at least the middle of next week. Another tropical disturbance currently in the western Caribbean may move into the East Pacific early next week, potentially leading to another tropical invest.

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