June 18: Warm Weekend, Stormy Next Week

Tropics: Forecast for ongoing Tropical Storm Blas.

Severe Weather: Day 2 and Day 3 Severe Weather Outlooks have been posted.

The 5-Day Forecasts are now updated again, covering northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, NYC, Long Island and southern Connecticut.

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After yesterday’s chilly temperatures, where some places barely even reached the lower 70s, today proved to be much warmer, with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast due to a warmer air mass approaching. This should continue to be the case over the next week as a warm air mass remains in place.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow, like today, is expected to be a warm day, with temperatures similar to today, if not slightly warmer in some places. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, leaning towards the higher end of that range in some places. Due to a south wind, Long Island/S CT and the coast will stay colder, in the lower to mid 80s.

Mainly sunny skies are expected with dry conditions, however a cold front is going to be approaching from the west. For tomorrow, this front will bring thunderstorms, locally strong to severe, to western New York and Pennsylvania, where I placed a 10% risk of severe thunderstorms.

Sunday Forecast: Very Warm, Some Storms Possible

Sunday’s forecast was quite difficult to make, as there are still differences with the models, however as the last two days have shown that the NAM performed better than the GFS, the more likely solution is starting to become a bit clearer. As the warmest air mass should be over the area on Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures between 16 and 18c, high temperatures are going to easily rise into the upper 80s away from the coast, and parts of the immediate NYC area may reach the lower to potentially mid 90s if the NAM verifies.

As the NAM is slower, the cold front is also further east than it is on the GFS, leading to the NAM showing a potential thunderstorm threat on Sunday. The parameters are relatively supportive at this time, however I am not too confident about any strong to severe thunderstorm potential for now. In my Day 3 outlook, I posted a 5% risk over the area, however it is possible that the southern parts of the risk (including our area), or the entire risk itself, may have to be removed. More details will come with tomorrow’s update.

Next Week: Dry Start, But Storms Return

Despite the cold front moving through, as it is expected to be weak, there will be little change with the air mass and the temperatures. The only significant change should be that the wind direction will come out of the west rather than the south/southwest. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s across the area.

By Tuesday, however, the storm potential increases. The models have been consistently showing an area of low pressure to our north which should bring precipitation towards the area between Tuesday and Thursday. There is uncertainty with any severe weather potential, though thunderstorms are possible each day during this time frame. Stay tuned for more details.

By late next week, a slightly colder air mass should move into the area. Dry conditions are expected to return with temperatures staying near average, in the lower to mid 80s.

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