June 16: Warm Pattern Develops

Notice: Until Friday, only this page will continue to be updated. Starting on either Friday or Saturday, the 5-Day Forecast and the Severe Weather/Tropics pages will be updated again. The Long Range Forecast page will be updated as well, with this year’s hurricane season outlook.


Today was another cloudy yet mild day, with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, though there were a few breaks in the clouds, especially in the afternoon.

As previously expected, despite the forecast models showing a decent severe weather threat today, severe weather did not show up across the region today, due to the lack of supportive parameters and the timing of the cold front not being supportive at all, moving through late tonight rather than this afternoon. As yesterday’s forecast mentioned, parts of the region did see thunderstorms, including parts of the area, with a few isolated storms becoming strong in the Mid Atlantic.

Short Term Forecast: There is the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms into late tonight as the cold front moves through, some of which could locally bring up to 1/4 inch of rain, however not the whole area will be seeing rain tonight, and most places are likely to stay dry.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to be a nicer day than today. As the storm exits the area, partly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, though with a colder air mass briefly returning, temperatures are going to be slightly below average. High temperatures should be in the mid 70s inland, in the upper 70s for the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 70s for Long Island and S CT.

The rest of the region should not be as nice, however. With a warmer air mass still remaining in the southern Mid Atlantic, temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s along with humid conditions are expected. In the interior Northeast, chilly temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s are expected, along with cloudy skies and some rain from today’s storm.

Friday And Weekend Outlook: Very Warm

There have been some changes with the latest models, and including a large difference between the GFS and the NAM models, it is possible that at least this weekend will not be as hot as originally expected. Significant difference with the two models begin with tomorrow’s forecast, though I have leaned towards the warmer GFS.

The difference gets only wider afterwards. On Friday, the GFS shows widespread mid-upper 80s, but the NAM only has a very narrow area of lower 80s, with 70s elsewhere, as it is slow in bringing in the warmer air mass. At this time, I am going slightly warmer than the NAM, but not as warm as the GFS, considering that it may be a bit too fast in bringing in the warm air mass, expecting high temperatures generally in the mid 80s, though a few places may reach the upper 80s.

Saturday continues with the difference, though I am going to lean slightly closer to the NAM at this time. The latest GFS run may be a bit too cold, with high temperatures only in the lower 80s. The NAM, meanwhile, continues to bring the warmer air mass closer to the area, with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s. For Saturday, I am expecting high temperatures in the upper 80s, though note that the forecast is not final and can still change.

For Sunday, the GFS shows a cold front moving through, and as the warmest 850 mb temperatures only peak overnight, if that solution verifies, temperatures would not get above 90 degrees at all during this time period, with Sunday cooling down into the lower to mid 80s. Looking at the last few storms, the models may be a bit too fast with the cold front, so at this time, I am also expecting Sunday’s high temperatures to peak in the upper 80s, though if the timing trends slower, high temperatures in the lower 90s may be possible.

Next Week Brief Outlook

By Monday, as the weak cold front should have moved through, temperatures should slightly cool down, however there is uncertainty on where the line between the colder temperatures and the persistent warm temperatures should form. At this time, I am thinking that it could end up near the area, with temperatures staying in the 80s through most of next week, but again, there is still uncertainty, so this can still change.

Tropics Update:

The second tropical depression of the East Pacific hurricane season has formed along the southern coast of Mexico, and is slowly moving west. This tropical depression should intensify into a weak to moderate tropical storm and move parallel to the coast of Mexico, then moving away from land in the next few days.

There is no activity in the Atlantic Ocean at this time that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

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