10:24 PM: Heavy thunderstorms, some strong, are currently approaching the northern parts of the area, and are slowly moving southeast. These storms should affect most of southern Connecticut and southeastern New York through tonight, bringing heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Some of these storms have a history of producing rainfall amounts up to 1 inch.
11:10 PM: The storms appear to be training, or all moving in the same direction, in southern New York and Connecticut. This may lead to flash flooding across certain areas tonight, which have been highlighted in green in the small image to the left. Rainfall amounts reaching 1-2 inches are possible in these areas.
While rain is also possible in areas outside the highlighted areas on the map, those areas show where the best chance for heavy rainfall is.
As the warm front should stall around the area, tomorrow is not going to be a very comfortable day. A weak low pressure should stay near the area, leading to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and thunderstorms. While no widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected due to the lack of supportive parameters, a few isolated storms may become strong, though the best chance for that should be to our south and west.
Meanwhile, temperatures are going to rise into the 80s across parts of the area. High temperatures should be in the lower to mid 80s for northern New Jersey and NYC, and some places may reach the upper 80s if there is enough sunshine. Humid conditions are also expected due to high dew points, making temperatures seem to be in the upper 80s. Due to an east to ENE wind, S CT and Long Island should stay colder, in the mid to upper 70s.
Next Week Overview:
There is still a model spread for next week, however some things are starting to become more consistent. A disturbance may move through the area during the middle of next week, either on Wednesday or Thursday, which if it does, it should bring the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures should stay in the upper 70s to lower 80s until then.
By late next week, it appears that much warmer temperatures should return to our area. High temperatures should start warming up well into the 80s on Thursday or Friday, and there is the potential for 90s to return again by next weekend.