June 1: Heat And Storms Return On Thursday

Note: The Severe Weather/Tropical page has now been created, with short term severe weather forecasts for the area and the region, as well as forecasts for any ongoing tropical storms or hurricanes.

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Today was a very warm and humid day across the area, though widespread afternoon thunderstorms temporarily cooled down the temperatures, producing heavy rain and frequent lightning. Despite the cold front having moved through, temperatures are not going to cool down by much; in fact, they should stay the same.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow should be another warm day, though it should not be as humid as today was. High temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper 80s across the area, except for Long Island and S CT, which should be in the lower to mid 80s, and the immediate coast in the mid to upper 70s.

Mainly sunny skies are expected for tomorrow, however these quiet conditions won’t last for long. An approaching cold front which should bring thunderstorms to western Pennsylvania and New York tomorrow should approach, reaching the area by Thursday afternoon.

Thursday’s Forecast: Hot, Humid And Stormy

Thursday is not going to be a very comfortable day across the area. High temperatures are going to rise into the mid to upper 80s inland, in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area, and even the coast is going to warm up into the lower 80s, with Long Island in the mid to upper 80s. Along with dew points in the 60s, temperatures may feel even warmer.

Meanwhile, an approaching cold front is going to bring the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. While the probability of a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is not too high, some storms may become strong or severe, producing heavy rain and frequent lightning. By Thursday night to Friday morning, a more organized area of rain and thunderstorms may affect the area, bringing rainfall amounts generally between 1/2 and 3/4 inch, locally reaching 1 to 2 inches in the heavier storms.

Friday And Weekend Forecast: Warmth Remains

After the cold front on Thursday night, as with the previous cold front, temperatures are not expected to cool down by much, if at all. As the colder air mass should stay to our north, high temperatures are going to stay in the 80s for Friday, with dry conditions.

Another cold front should then approach the area, once again drawing in warmth with temperatures returning into the upper 80s and lower 90s. There is uncertainty with the timing, as models such as the GFS and GGEM are leaning towards Saturday, with the ECMWF leaning towards Sunday. At this time, I am following the slower solution, expecting the cold front to move through on Sunday, though the faster solution is still a possibility, where the cold front moves through on Saturday.

Behind this cold front, there is indication that a colder air mass may move in, though as with previous times when a colder air mass approached, this air mass should also significantly weaken by the time that it reaches the area, bringing slightly below average temperatures, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

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