May 4: Colder Temperatures To Return

Note: I apologize for the delay, though my May Outlook has now been posted in the Long Range Forecasts section. I am expecting a wetter and slightly colder than average month.


Today was mild across the area, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, though there was not as much humidity as yesterday had. A few isolated storms were observed in the area, however the worst storms were to our north, from central New York to western Massachusetts and Connecticut, where there were over 70 significant wind reports!

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Despite the cold front passing through, temperatures won’t get colder, in fact they may even be slightly warmer. High temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the interior areas, and in the lower to mid 80s for the New York City area, except for the immediate coast, which should have high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Mainly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, leading to a very nice and comfortable day, especially with the temperatures. Other than a few thunderstorms in western Pennsylvania and New York, the rest of the region should also stay dry.

Late Week Outlook: Rain On Thursday, Dry Friday

By late Wednesday night, the same cold front that will bring the thunderstorms to western Pennsylvania and New York should move towards the area. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are likely between late Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon, though strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected. As a result of the earlier passage of the cold front than previously expected, Thursday’s temperatures will also be colder than previously expected, in the upper 70s to lower 80s instead of the mid to upper 80s.

Friday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, however a storm to our west is going to bring additional rain and thunderstorms starting on Friday night. There is still uncertainty on the exact timing, location and whether it will be able to produce severe thunderstorms or not, however it is likely that the storm should track near the Great Lakes, bringing warmer temperatures that may reach 80 degrees in parts of the area, and it should produce rain sometime between Friday night and Saturday night. As a result, I am mentioning occasional rain and thunderstorms for late Friday night and Saturday, with a chance of thunderstorms for Saturday evening.

Colder Temperatures Return Sunday, Next Storm Potential

After Saturday’s storm exits, temperatures are going to cool down. Saturday night should already become colder, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 40s in the interior areas, in the mid to upper 40s for the New York City suburbs, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for New York City. Sunday should be the coldest day during this time period, with high temperatures in the generally in the mid to upper 50s, potentially colder in the interior areas and warmer in the immediate NYC area.

Sunday night should also be quite cold across the area, with low temperatures in the 30s in the interior areas. The immediate NYC area should stay with lows in the 40s, however low temperatures should be colder than Saturday night. Monday begins to slightly warm up, with high temperatures in the lower 60s for most of the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm up steadily until the middle of next week, likely reaching the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile, the models show a storm approaching from our west, however there is still uncertainty on the smaller details such as its location and timing. Despite the uncertainty, rain could potentially return to the area by mid to late next week.

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