After drier than average conditions during the past 1-2 weeks, it appears that rain and thunderstorms are going to finally make a return to the area. Before this happens, we need to go through another warm day, and after the rain and storms move through, the warmth should not end yet, in fact it may intensify.
Tomorrow is going to be another warm day across the area. High temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper 80s inland and in the NYC area with a few lower 90s west and SW of NYC, in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Long Island and S CT, and in the mid to upper 70s for the immediate coast.
Despite partly sunny skies, a cold front approaching from our west may bring an isolated thunderstorm or two late in the day, though the majority of the storms should stay to our west. While a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is not expected, any storm that does form has the potential to become strong or potentially locally severe, especially in the western areas.
Mid To Late Week: Wet Tuesday, Warm Up To Follow?
By Tuesday, the cold front should move through the area. During the afternoon and overnight hours, periods of rain and thunder are likely, and some storms may also become strong or locally severe. At least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected, with locally lower or higher amounts depending on where the heavier thunderstorms form. High temperatures are going to be in the lower to mid 80s.
The air mass behind this cold front should not be colder; in fact, temperatures should warm up behind this cold front. On Wednesday, high temperatures should slightly warm into the mid to upper 80s.
There is some uncertainty on how warm Thursday gets. If the warmer case scenario verifies, which has been shown several times on the models, a southwest wind combined with warm 850 mb temperatures would lead to high temperatures rising into the lower to mid 90s across most of the area. However, a few models have gone against this idea, keeping the warmer air to our south with high temperatures in the 80s. While at this time, I am expecting temperatures in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday, temperatures could end up warmer.
Another cold front then approaches the area by Friday, bringing another potential round of rain and thunderstorms. While a colder air mass is expected behind this front, it should weaken by the time that it reaches the area, and as a result, temperatures are not going to be much colder, cooling down by at least 5-10 degrees.