May 3: Severe Weather Bust, Late Week Update

Today was yet another warm and humid day, with high temperatures generally in the 80s across the area. Thankfully, tomorrow should not be as humid as today, with dew points dropping into the 50s.

The severe weather forecast, however, did not end up as expected. Due to the cold front being further west than expected, we did not have much of a trigger for the storms, which resulted in only 4 severe weather reports across the region, all of them being wind reports. Instead of severe weather, an area of heavy rain fell from east central Pennsylvania to New York City and northeastern New Jersey, producing locally up to 2 inches of rain. Another line of rain and thunderstorms was observed in the afternoon hours as the cold front moved through.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

While temperatures should be only slightly colder than today, it won’t be very humid tomorrow, with dew points in the 50s. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area, except for the immediate coast that should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Partly Sunny skies are expected tomorrow, however a weak storm to our north could result in isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. The greater risk for thunderstorms should be to our north, into northern New York. Across the region, thunderstorms are also possible in southeastern Virginia, where humid conditions should continue.

Wednesday And Thursday: Warmth Continues

As previously mentioned, warm conditions are expected to continue through Thursday. Wednesday should have high temperatures similar to tomorrow, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday should be warmer than Wednesday, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 80s.

There have been some changes with the model solutions for the late week to early weekend period. As there is still uncertainty, the forecast for late next week at this time is a lower confidence forecast, however there should be a better idea of what should happen over the next few days. Instead of showing a cold front moving through on Friday, the current models show a weak cold front moving through on Thursday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Friday is slightly colder, though Saturday warms up ahead of another storm that is shown to track in the southeastern Great Lakes, bringing rain and thunderstorms.

As there is uncertainty with the timing of the first cold front, I am mentioning a 50% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday throughout the day. At this time, I am keeping Friday with partly sunny skies, but there is the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. There is uncertainty with the second and stronger storm’s timing and location, though it is likely that we see rain out of this storm, so for now, I am expecting rain and thunderstorms on Friday night and Saturday. As there is uncertainty with the storm’s location, it could end up further south or north, which is an important factor along with timing in order to determine whether there could be any strong or severe thunderstorms with this cold front.

Longer Range Outlook: Much Colder

A much colder air mass is going to move in behind the storm on Saturday. While Saturday night should not be too cold, Sunday is going to be much colder. High temperatures are expected to be only in the mid to upper 50s in the interior areas, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for New York city and closer to the coast. This is nearly 10-15 degrees below the average high temperatures!

Sunday night is currently expected to be the coldest night. Low temperatures are going to fall into the 30s across most of the Northeast and the interior Mid Atlantic, with lower 40s for New York City. If conditions are favorable, frost and freeze may return to the interior areas.

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