May 27: Very Warm, Then Stormy

Blog Notes: The 5-day forecast for Long Island and southern Connecticut has now been added. At this time, it is an experimental forecast, so it may be several degrees off, though that should be for a week at most. Also note that next week, once I post my hurricane season outlook, some changes will be made to the blog, including changing the Stormy Weather Outlook page to a Severe Weather/Tropical page.

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Today was mainly cloudy across the area, though temperatures were also slightly colder, in the lower to mid 70s. The next few days, though, should begin to become slightly warmer, with Monday bringing 90+ degrees once again to the area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow should continue with the comfortable temperatures, ranging from the mid to upper 70s for both the interior areas and NYC, to the lower to mid 70s for Long Island and the immediate coast. The rest of the region should also have similar temperatures, with most places in the Northeast also in the 70s.

Mainly cloudy skies are still expected to continue through tomorrow, with a weak disturbance to our south. This disturbance may cause an isolated shower or thunderstorm, however more widespread thunderstorms are not expected.

Sunday And Monday: Dry, Very Warm

By Sunday, the isolated storms should have left the area with mainly sunny skies, and a warmer air mass should be moving in as well. Due to this, temperatures are going to rise into the mid to upper 80s across the area, and a few isolated locations may reach 90 degrees.

With the warmer air mass remaining in place, along with mainly sunny skies and a SW wind, Monday should be the warmest day of this warm spell. High temperatures are going to rise into the 90s away from the coast, possibly reaching the mid 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area. Long Island and the immediate coast should stay in the 70s and 80s.

Longer Range: Stormy Tuesday, Colder Afterwards

By Tuesday, a cold front should approach from our west. It should reach the area late enough in the day that high temperatures still manage to rise into the 80s, bringing thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, in the late afternoon and evening hours. There is still some uncertainty on the severe storm potential during this time period, as the latest GFS runs have a decent amount of CAPE and LI, but barely any shear, which may limit this potential.

By Wednesday, there should be slightly colder temperatures with partly sunny skies, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By late next week, however, uncertainty returns with the next storm. It is likely that a storm should form during this time period, but where it goes remains a question at this time, which may range from moving through the Midwest/Great Lakes to the Northeast.

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