May 25: Two Extremes Late This Week

Today was much warmer than yesterday, in fact it was slightly warmer than I expected, with some places reaching the upper 80s. Tomorrow should be even warmer than today, but a back door cold front will bring a quick end this warm and dry pattern.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be the warmest day so far this year. With 850 mb temperatures nearing 18°C and mainly to partly sunny skies in place, temperatures are going to quickly rise into the 90s across most of the area, which combined with humidity, will not make for a comfortable day.

High temperatures should be in the lower to mid 90s inland, in the mid 90s for the north and western suburbs of NYC, in the lower to mid 90s for NYC, and in the mid to upper 80s for Long Island and southern Connecticut. The immediate coast should be slightly colder, in the lower 80s. While I am not expecting such, I would not be surprised to see isolated locations in the immediate NYC area reach the upper 90s. Meanwhile, with dew points in the 60s, temperatures are going to feel even warmer, leading to heat indices reaching the upper 90s or even 100 degrees.

Storm Potential: Severe thunderstorms are also possible tomorrow evening. As a back door cold front approaches from our north and east, relatively high parameters are going to lead to an isolated severe weather threat tomorrow evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk should be from NYC and further north and northeast, where some storms could become severe. Places further south and east may see an isolated storm, but the chances of that are lower than places further north.

Thursday And Friday: Two Opposites

Thursday is going to continue with the warmth on Wednesday, though it should be slightly colder, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The severe weather risk is also expected on Thursday, however as the cold front should already be near the area, the severe weather risk should be further south/west, covering most of the area as well as the rest of New Jersey. As with Wednesday, some storms may be severe, producing damaging winds and/or small hail.

By Friday, however, we are looking at the complete opposite. The cold front’s timing has been pushed back, now expected to move through on Thursday night. As a result, Friday is going to be significantly colder, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, though if the latest models verify, temperatures may be even lower. Some rain is also possible early in the day, however there should not be strong/severe thunderstorms.

Weekend To Early Week Outlook: Chilly, Then Warming Up

Saturday should be another cool day. With clearing skies on Friday night, low temperatures are going to drop into the 40s away from the coast, and in the lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast. High temperatures should be warmer, returning into the lower to mid 70s.

By the late weekend to early week, however, temperatures should rapidly warm up as a warm air mass approaches from our west. On Sunday, high temperatures could potentially return into the lower 80s, and by Monday, even warmer temperatures are expected, with the mid to upper 80s returning.

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