May 24: Very Warm Week, Stormy End


Note: In the next few days, I am going to add Long Island and southern Connecticut to my 5-day forecasts, though my forecasts for Long Island are still going to be mentioned in the general discussion. In addition, I am planning on posting my hurricane season outlook sometime next week.

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During the past two days, clouds and scattered showers were observed across the area, with temperatures staying below average, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. During the next few days, however, we are looking at a completely different scenario, with 90s to return once again.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be partly sunny, which is an improvement from today’s cloudy conditions. Meanwhile, temperatures are going to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area, with a few mid 80s in the immediate NYC area. The coast is also expected to be warmer, with high temperatures in the mid 70s, with Long Island reaching the mid to upper 70s.

The rest of the region should also be dry with a high pressure in control. The only areas that should see rain are in northern Maine out of a weak storm in Canada, and in southern Virginia out of a hybrid storm that should affect parts of the Southeast. This storm should not affect our area, though if the conditions around it become more favorable, it may develop into a subtropical storm, the first of this year’s hurricane season. At this time, the storm is not under conditions favorable enough for development.

Mid To Late Week Outlook: Hot, Then Stormy

During my Friday update, I slightly lowered my forecast temperatures, expecting the upper 80s on Wednesday, but noting that the lower 90s are still possible. This now does not appear to be the case, as the models did trend slightly warmer, and we are now looking at the return of high temperatures in the 90s.

Wednesday: During Wednesday, high temperatures should be able to rise into the lower 90s across parts of, if not most of the area, and parts of the immediate NYC area should also reach the mid 90s. The only places that should not get that warm are Long Island and the immediate coast, which should stay in the 80s. Along with dew points in the 60s to potentially lower 70s, humid conditions are expected, which could make the temperatures feel even warmer.

Meanwhile, we are also looking at thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, during this time period. As I have previously mentioned, a back door cold front is expected to affect the area. While it should not move through, it will bring the potential for thunderstorms on Wednesday evening and early overnight hours. With relatively high CAPE and LI values, there is also the potential for locally strong storms.

Thursday: The warm air mass is expected to remain in place, but due to this, the risk of thunderstorms extends through Thursday. The CAPE and LI are expected to remain high, and as such, I am expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, some of which may become strong or severe. Temperatures should continue to be very warm, in the mid to upper 80s, though places that see rain or storms should have slightly lower temperatures. Lower 90s are expected once again for parts of the area.

Friday: A cold front from our northwest should move through on Friday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact timing, which would determine the high temperatures, and the range of possibilities is between the mid 70s and the mid 80s. At this time, I am leaning towards the lower 80s, but colder temperatures are possible if the cold front moves through earlier. The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues, though they are less likely to be strong or severe on Friday.

Longer Range: Colder Temperatures To Return

By the longer range, there is a relatively large model spread, though what is very likely is that it should be turning colder once again. A colder air mass to our northwest should approach, and while it should weaken by the time that it reaches us, colder temperatures are expected, with high temperatures below average, in the mid to upper 60s. In the case that mainly clear skies take place, low temperatures should also be unseasonably cool, reaching the 40s in parts of the area on Sunday morning.

There is uncertainty with precipitation during this time period, as some models, such as the GGEM and DGEX, show a storm affecting our area, bringing a chilly rain with high temperatures unseasonable for late May, in the 50s. The other models meanwhile keep the area dry, with high temperatures in the 60s. Whether the dry or wet solution verifies, May is going to end on a chilly note, which may last through early June as well.

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