May 17: Chilly/Wet Tuesday, Late Week Warmth

Yesterday and today were both mild days, with high temperatures in the 70s, though there are more clouds today than yesterday, due to an approaching storm to our southwest. This week, however, should be the complete opposite of the past few days, starting out very chilly and wet and quickly turning much warmer and dry.

Tomorrow’s Outlook / Rain Forecast:

Tomorrow should be the opposite of today. Instead of the warmth we’ve seen, the clouds and rain are going to significantly lower the temperatures. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s for the interior areas, and in the mid to upper 50s for the immediate NYC area. These temperatures, like those of last week, are well below average, similar to the average temperatures during March.

In addition to the chilly temperatures, rain is expected to return. The NAM’s previous runs were much drier for the area, however its latest run trended wetter. For my forecast, I am still leaning towards the wetter scenario shown by the other models, including the 18z NAM. While light rain should begin late tomorrow morning, moderate to heavy rain should only start to fall during the early afternoon hours, and last through early Wednesday morning. The rain should end by late Wednesday morning.

As this is a coastal storm, the heaviest rain should fall along the immediate coast, from southern New Jersey to eastern Long Island, where up to 2 inches, locally 2-3 inches of rain, are expected. Further inland, from Philadelphia to northeastern NJ and southwestern Connecticut, 1 to 1.5 inches of rain are expected. The interior areas should be north and west of the heaviest rain, where rainfall amounts between 1/2 and 1 inch are expected with locally higher amounts.

Late Week Forecast: Warmth Returns

Things are going to be changing relatively quickly after the rain on Tuesday. Wednesday is still expected to be mainly cloudy with a few showers possible early, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. By Thursday, however, a rapid warm up is expected, with high temperatures already reaching 80 degrees in parts of the area, with temperatures otherwise in the mid to upper 70s. Friday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s inland, and in the mid to potentially upper 80s for the immediate NYC area.

By next weekend, however, uncertainty returns to the forecast. A low pressure could approach the area, which could bring thunderstorms to the area starting Saturday or Sunday. At the same time, temperatures could end up being slightly colder than Thursday and Friday due to the clouds and rain. More details will follow once there is less uncertainty on this time period becomes more.

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