May 14: Heavy Rain Returns Next Week

Today continued to warm up even more than yesterday did, with the high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The severe storm forecast failed for the northern parts of the area, as the storms stayed further south, however there were heavy thunderstorms south of New York City, including a storm that moved through Staten Island, bringing some rain and thunder to Brooklyn.

This weekend is going to be a very nice one, with mainly sunny, dry and mild conditions, however these conditions are not going to last long as the next storm approaches the area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow should also be mild, like today was, however there are going to be dry conditions, unlike today. The storm that brought severe weather to our south today is going to bring some light rain to Maine, though the rest of the region should stay dry, with partly to mainly sunny skies.

Tomorrow morning should start out mild, unlike the past few days, with temperatures in the lower to mid 50s inland, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the immediate NYC area. High temperatures are going to be slightly colder than today, in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid to upper 70s for the immediate NYC area.

Early Week Outlook, Rain Returns

The dry conditions are expected to last through Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures staying in the lower to mid 70s across the area, with mostly sunny skies on Sunday and partly sunny skies on Monday. Afterwards, however, stormy conditions are expected to return. The latest models continue to show a storm producing heavy rain amounts affecting the area, bringing rain between Tuesday and Wednesday. While some model runs have reduced the rain amounts, most of the solutions continue to show 1 to 2 inches of rain for the area, with locally higher amounts.

It appears that the best chance for heavy rain should be on Tuesday, and as the warm front appears to stay to our south at this time, temperatures could end up on the chilly side once again, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. By Tuesday night, the heavy rain appears to move out of the area, though with the storm still around, precipitation should remain until Wednesday night, with the best chance for thunderstorms during the day on Wednesday.

As there is still some uncertainty, the smaller details from the solution above can still change, such as the temperatures and the rain amounts, though it is likely that we should see moderate to heavy rain during this time frame.

Longer Range Outlook: Warmth To Return

After the storm on Tuesday and Wednesday, which should bring colder temperatures, a warmer air mass should move into the area, quickly warming up the temperatures. By Thursday, high temperatures should be in the mid to upper 70s, and parts of the area could already reach 80 degrees. A more widespread area of 80+ degrees is possible by Friday, making it potentially the warmest day in the area since early this month.

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