May 10: May Or March?

Yesterday was an unusually chilly day across the area, with high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area, which combined with the wind, caused temperatures to feel even colder. These temperatures, being much colder than average, are similar to those of late March. While today did warm up a little, with high temperatures reaching the lower 60s in parts of the area, widespread long lasting warmth isn’t expected to return soon.

Tomorrow’s Forecast:

A cold morning is expected once again. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland, in the mid to upper 30s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast, except for interior Long Island that should have lows in the upper 30s. High temperatures should be slightly colder than today, in the mid to upper 50s for the interior areas, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the immediate NYC area. These temperatures are still at least 10 degrees below average.

Increasing clouds are expected as a storm approaches from our west. While this storm should produce light to moderate rain as it approaches the area, heavy rain is expected in western Pennsylvania. This area of heavy rain, however, should weaken as it approaches our area.

Chilly And Wet Wednesday

The storm in the Ohio Valley is going to move nearly due east, which should take it over our area by Wednesday. As a result, periods of light to moderate rain are going to fall between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon, which should produce rain amounts around 1/2 inch, locally higher or lower. The highest amounts should be in the northwestern parts of the area.

In addition to the rain, chilly temperatures are also expected. As the warm front stays to our south, a very sharp temperature gradient should develop. While Washington DC has high temperatures in the lower 80s, with Philadelphia in the upper 60s, high temperatures for our area should be much colder, in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the interior, lower to mid 50s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid to upper 50s for NYC and closer to the coast. These temperatures are the average high temperatures in late March!

Dry Thursday, Stormy Friday

As the storm moves to our east on Thursday, temperatures are going to warm up. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s across the area, with dry conditions. Meanwhile, another storm is going to approach, however there is still a lot of uncertainty on this storm. The models are showing different solutions and timings with this storm, which range from upper 70s and severe weather on Friday to 50s and a few morning showers. As it is likely that we should see at least some rain out of this storm, in the 5-day forecast which will be updated shortly, I am mentioning a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Longer Range: Drier And Warmer Conditions

After Friday’s potential storms, there is still uncertainty on Saturday’s forecast due to the different model solutions for Friday, however it is likely that we should steadily warm up by the second half of next weekend, along with dry conditions. High temperatures should steadily rise into the lower 70s, and should stay there through early next week. Afterwards, there is some uncertainty as there is another storm in the region, however the models at this time keep it to our south. Despite the south solution, this storm needs to be kept an eye on, as it is still uncertain where it exactly tracks.

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