May 1: Storms Tomorrow, Longer Range Update

Note: There will be an update tomorrow evening. If there are any storms before 10 PM, I will post short term forecasts for the storms.

Today was a very warm day across the area, with temperatures well into the 80s inland, reaching the lower 90s in some places, however my forecast was too warm for NYC and NE NJ. With the expectation of a SW wind, temperatures were supposed to rise into the upper 80s-lower 90s north and west of NYC, and in the mid-upper 80s in NYC, however a southeast wind prevented temperatures from rising too high, and caused the temperatures to drop by 3-5 PM, when we would typically see the warmest temperatures.

Tomorrow’s Outlook: Severe Weather

Tomorrow is also expected to be warm, however how warm it gets is a question, especially with today’s unexpected southeast wind causing lower than expected temperatures in parts of the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s across the area, however it may be slightly higher or lower, depending on the amount of sunshine and wind direction.

Thunderstorms are expected to be the main problem across the region. Until the late afternoon hours, we should stay dry, with severe storms to our west, in Pennsylvania into south central New York. By the evening, however, thunderstorms are expected to affect the area as the cold front approaches. The storms may be strong to severe, though the worst storms should stay to our west.

Below is my regional forecast for the severe storm potential tomorrow. There is some uncertainty with the exact placement of the 30% risk area, so for now I have a widespread area, which could be narrowed down.

Longer Range Outlook: Warmth, Then Storms

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Monday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. Locally heavy rain is possible, however severe thunderstorms are not expected. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue to cool down, with high temperatures returning into the mid 70s.

By Thursday, however, much warmer temperatures should return to the area as a storm organizes to our west and pulls in much warmer air. Temperatures return into the mid 80s for high temperatures on Thursday, with Friday about the same, if not slightly warmer.

The cold front is expected to affect the area between Friday and Saturday, however this front could end up being stronger than the cold front moving through on Monday, as there is a sharp gradient between the warm air mass in place and a much colder air mass coming from the north and west. Thunderstorms are expected on both days, and while still uncertain, there is also the potential for severe thunderstorms. After the cold front moves through, temperatures become much colder, with high temperatures likely returning into the 60s.

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