Today’s 12z GFS run showed a completely different scenario for the late week storm than the previous runs. While up to now, the models showed a cold front moving through with some light rain and thunderstorms, followed by colder conditions, the latest GFS run takes the storm in a different path.
The previous GFS runs had a strong low moving towards the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front through with light rain and thunderstorms. For example, this is what the 06z GFS showed for hour 114 (Wednesday night):
Instead of showing the solution above, the 12z GFS develops a cut off low that tracks through the southern Ohio Valley. The result is this, by hour 150 (Friday afternoon):
This run ends up bringing nearly an inch of rain to the area, which if the scenario verifies, could bring flooding problems once again to parts of the area. So far, the GFS is not alone in showing this, as the UKMET showed a similar solution, followed by the HPC.
While I’m waiting until tomorrow to see whether the models show a similar solution, it is a very possible solution, which if verifies, could bring another round of heavy rain to the area. Stay tuned for updates on this potential storm.