April 30: Severe Thunderstorms On Sunday

Tomorrow is going to be even warmer than today, with high temperatures rising well into the 80s, possibly even reaching 90 degrees. Humid conditions are also expected. This warm spell, however, will quickly come to an end on Sunday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow should be very warm. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures are going to surge well into the 80s, with parts of the area, including places just south and west of New York City, seeing high temperatures reach the lower 90s. The immediate coast is going to be the only exception, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Thunderstorms are meanwhile going to be approaching from the west. While they should not reach us yet, places such as western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and far western New York are going to see scattered thunderstorms, some of which may become severe. The rain should not affect our area tomorrow, but Sunday will be a different story.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential On Sunday

Sunday is still expected to be very warm, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with even more humid conditions, as dew points rise into the 60s. There should be more cloud cover on Sunday than Saturday, however if the immediate New York City area and places further south manage to have more sunshine than clouds, temperatures may rise into the lower 90s once again.

Thunderstorms are expected to be the main problem in the afternoon hours. With a set up allowing for severe weather, including CAPE between 1000 and 1500 j/kg, reaching 2000 to our west, Lift Index between -3 and -5, and bulk shear between 40 and 50 knots, thunderstorms are expected to affect the area during the late afternoon and evening hours, some of which may be strong or severe.

While we should also see locally severe storms, the best chance for severe weather should be to our north and west, from Pennsylvania into central New York, where a 30% risk may be added tomorrow. Below is my current outlook for the severe weather potential, with our area in the eastern edge of the 15% risk area.

Next Week Outlook: Warmth Returns

After the cold front passes through on Monday, bringing additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms, high temperatures are going to cool down into the mid 70s. Afterwards, as a cold front approaches the area, temperatures are going to warm up again by the middle of next week, with 80s potentially returning once again by Wednesday, and mid 80s are possible by Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible with this cold front on between Thursday and Saturday. Afterwards, there is some uncertainty on what happens, though it appears that colder temperatures may return to the area.

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