April 22, 2010: Heavy Rain And Flooding To Return

The storms have generally ended across the area, though some additional rainfall is still possible. Today brought several heavy thunderstorms in the area, producing rainfall amounts locally as high as 3/4 inch. The cold front is moving through the area, and is expected to bring slightly colder conditions for tonight. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s inland, in the lower 40s in the suburbs of New York City, and in the mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow’s Forecast:

Tomorrow should be nicer than today, with mostly sunny across the area. Mild conditions are also expected, with high temperatures in the mid 60s inland, and in the upper 60s in the New York City area.

The Northeast should also be mainly dry, unlike today, when rain and thunderstorms were widespread. The only areas of rain should be in Maine, where moderate rain is expected, and southwestern Virginia, where light rain should fall from the storm that will affect us early next week.

Heavy Rain And Flooding Return Sunday And Monday

***Red Alert has been issued for this storm, click here for more details.***

As the models continue to show a wet solution for the storm, a red alert remains in effect. Looking at the latest models, below is what I am currently thinking should happen during each time frame. Note that there is still some uncertainty on the exact timing, so this outlook is not final yet.

Light to moderate rain is expected to enter the area late on Saturday night, with moderate rain until Sunday morning. After a brief break in the rain, an area of moderate to heavy rain should move in for the rest of the day. The GFS is most likely too dry with this band of rain, only showing slightly over 1/4 inch total, so I decided to lean towards the 18z NAM, which shows at least 3/4 inch out of the first rain band.

The rain then becomes light showers on Sunday night, which continue until Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, the main low pressure that was over the Ohio Valley is expected to move towards the area, bringing along with it periods of moderate rain to the area. At least an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible on Monday. Scattered showers then fall until Tuesday, when the storm should exit the area.

At this time, I am expecting 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. Flooding may become an issue once again in parts of the area.

Looking Beyond The Storm

After this storm, temperatures are generally expected to warm up. There is still a question on how much the temperatures warm up, which could be between the mid 60s and the lower 70s. A storm is expected to develop in the Midwest by late next week, and while most models do not show rain in the area with this storm, there is still uncertainty with that time period, so it should take at least a few days before we know if the storm affects the area or not.

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